Friday, December 11, 2009

E X T R E M E M A R K E T C O M M E N T A R Y


The STOCK INDEXES
http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes

The March NASDAQ 100 closed lower due to profit taking on Friday but remains above the 20-day moving average crossing at
1784.15. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews this fall's rally, the 75% retracement
level of the 2007-2008-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1947.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is
last Friday's high crossing at 1813.75. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2007-2008-decline crossing at
1947.00. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 1756.75. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1719.75.

The March S&P 500 index closed higher on Friday as it extended yesterday's rally above the 20-day moving average. The high-
range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Today's rally turned stochastics and the RSI neutral to
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews this fall's rally, the 62% retracement
level of the 2007-2008-decline crossing at 1155.15 is the next upside target. If March renews this week's decline, the reaction
low crossing at 1073.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1105.50. Second resistance is
last Friday's high crossing at 1114.00. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 1081.00. Second support is the reaction
low crossing at 1073.00.

The Dow closed higher on Friday as extends this week's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening
on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the
Dow renews this year's rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2007-2008-decline crossing at 11249 is the next upside target. If
the Dow renews this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 10231 is the next downside target. First resistance is last
Friday's high crossing at 10516. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2007-2008-decline crossing at 11249.
First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 10235. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 10231.

INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=interest

March T-bonds closed down 18/32's at 117-27.

March T-bonds closed lower on Friday as it extended the decline off November's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a
steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, November's low crossing at 116-16 is the next downside target.
Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 120-06 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First
resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 119-29. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 120-06.
First support is today's low crossing at 117-05. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 116-16.

ENERGY MARKETS
http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy

January crude oil closed lower on Friday and below the 75% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 70.23 as it
extended the decline off October's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. If January
extends the decline off October's high, the 87% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 68.16 is the next downside
target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.05 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 74.16. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at
76.05. First support is today's low crossing at 69.46. Second support is the 87% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at
68.16.

January heating oil closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off October's high. The
mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off October's high, the 75% retracement level of
this fall's rally crossing at 186.43 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 201.54 are
needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 199.58.
Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 201.54. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 188.71. Second
support is the 75% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 186.43.

January unleaded gas closed higher due to short covering on Friday and above the 62% retracement level of this fall's rally
crossing at 183.52. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI
remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends this week's decline, the 75%
retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 177.46 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 196.93 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 194.13. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 196.93. First support is today's low crossing at
181.24. Second support is the 75% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 177.46.

January Henry natural gas closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's rally. The low-
range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling
that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends this week's rally, the 62% retracement level of this
fall's decline crossing at 5.565 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.866 would
temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is today's high crossing at 5.375. Second resistance is the
62% retracement level of this fall's decline crossing at 5.565. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.866.
Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.859.
CURRENCIES

The March Dollar closed sharply higher on Friday as it extended this week's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a
steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends its current rally, November's high crossing at 77.27 is the
next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.68 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in
the Dollar. First resistance is today's high crossing at 77.12. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 77.27. First
support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 75.89. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.68.

The March Euro closed sharply lower on Friday as it extended this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a
steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways
to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, October's low crossing at 144.800 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 148.967 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has
been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 148.539. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 148.967. First support is today's low crossing at 145.810. Second support is October's low crossing at 144.800.

The March British Pound closed lower on Friday as it extended this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a
steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways
to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the October 15th gap crossing at 1.6009 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.6524 would confirm that a short-term low has been
posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.6404. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 1.6524. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 1.6157. Second support is the October 15th gap crossing at
1.6009.

The March Swiss Franc closed lower on Friday as it extended this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a
steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways
to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at .9541 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at .9878 would confirm that a short-term low has been
posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at .9849. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at .9878. First support is today's low crossing at .9651. Second support is the reaction low crossing at .9541.

The March Canadian Dollar closed lower on Friday as it extends the trading range of the past six weeks. The low-range close
sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 96.08 or below 92.80 are needed to confirm a
breakout of November's trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is last Tuesday's high
crossing at 96.08. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 97.92. First support is the reaction low crossing at 93.00.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 92.80.

The March Japanese Yen closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's rally. The mid-range
close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews this week's rally, November's high crossing at .11789 is the next upside
target. If March renews last week's decline, October's low crossing at .10847 is the next downside target. First resistance is
Wednesday's high crossing at .11384. Second resistance is November's high crossing at .11789. First support is last Friday's
low crossing at .11024. Second support is October's low crossing at .10847.

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PRECIOUS METALS
http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals

February gold closed lower on Friday as it extended this week's decline below the 20-day moving average. The low-range close
sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that additional
weakness is possible near-term. If February extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1102.60 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1165.60 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has
been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1159.40. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 1165.60. First support is today's low crossing at 1110.20. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1102.60.

March silver closed slightly higher on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage
for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to
lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 16.155 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.321 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First
resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 18.246. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.321.
First support is today's low crossing at 16.900. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 16.155.

March copper closed higher due to short covering on Friday but remains below the 20-day moving average crossing at 315.77.
The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling
that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at
302.10 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 324.50 would confirm that a low has been posted.
First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 315.77. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at
318.91. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 308.15. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 302.10.

FOOD & FIBER
http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=food

March coffee closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidated some of Wednesday's decline. The mid-range
close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish hinting that a double top might be
forming or is in place. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.04 are needed to confirm that a short-term top
has been posted. If December extends Monday's rally, June's high crossing at 14.85 is the next upside target.

March cocoa closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off November's low. The mid-
range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral
hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 32.99 are needed to
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends this year's rally, October's high crossing at 34.39 is the next
upside target.

March sugar closed sharply higher on Friday as it extended the rally off November's low. The high-range close set the stage for
a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. Closes above 24.00 or below 21.18 are needed to clear up near-term direction in the market.

March cotton closed higher on Friday the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics
and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 73.78 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews this fall's rally, the 62%
retracement level of the 2008-decline crossing at 80.83 is the next upside target.

GRAINS
http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains

March Corn closed up 11 1/2-cents at 4.04 1/2.

March corn close higher due to short covering on Friday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.03 1/2 confirming
that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday.
Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this
week's rally, November's high crossing at 4.24 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes above 4.24 1/2 or below 3.77 1/2 are
needed to confirm a trading range breakout and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is today's high
crossing at 4.06. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.21. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 3.79.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.77 1/2.

March wheat closed up a 1/2-cents at 5.37 1/2.

March wheat closed fractionally higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The mid-
range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral hinting
that a short-term low might be in or is near. If March extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 5.16 1/2 is the
next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.67 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has
been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's gap crossing at 5.47 1/2. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at
5.57 1/2. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 5.30. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 5.16 1/2.

March Kansas City Wheat closed up a 1/2-cent at 5.27 1/2.

March Kansas City Wheat closed fractionally higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off November's high. The
mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain
neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the
reaction low crossing at 5.18 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.58 are needed
to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.47 1/2. Second
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.58. First support is today's low crossing at 5.22 1/2. Second support is
the reaction low crossing at 5.18.

March Minneapolis wheat closed down 3/4-cents at 5.42 1/2.

March Minneapolis wheat closed fractionally lower on Friday as it extends the decline off November's high. The mid-range
close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish
signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 5.33
is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.71 would confirm that a short-term low has
been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.62 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 5.71. First support is today's low crossing at 5.38. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 5.33.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX

January soybeans closed up 8-cents at 10.35.

January soybeans closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's decline but remains
below the 20-day moving average. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics
and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends this week's
decline, the October-November uptrend line crossing near 10.08 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high
crossing at 10.60 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 10.38 1/4. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 10.43. First support is today's low crossing
at 10.20. Second support is the October-November uptrend line crossing near 10.08.

March soybean meal closed up $0.80 at $303.90.

March soybean meal closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidated some of Wednesday's decline. The high-
range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 302.80 are needed to
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews this fall's rally, June's high crossing at 333.00 is the next upside
target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 313.50. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 333.00. First
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 302.80. Second support is Wednesday's low crossing at 300.20.

March soybean oil closed up 12 pts. at 39.99.

March soybean oil closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidated some of Wednesday's decline. The high-
range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the November 11th gap crossing at 38.43
is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 41.08 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been
posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 40.51. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 40.53. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 39.65. Second support is the November 11th gap crossing at
38.43.
LIVESTOCK
http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock

February hogs closed unchanged at $65.43.

February hogs closed unchanged on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for
a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remains bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-
term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 65.33 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If
March renews this fall's rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing at 70.67 is the next upside target.
First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 66.01. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 68.05. First
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 65.33. Second support is Thursday's low crossing at 64.10.

February bellies closed up $1.05 at $86.10.

February bellies closed higher on Friday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 85.58. The high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that a low might be in or is
near. Today's close above the 20-day moving average confirms that a low has been posted. If February extends this week's
rally, the reaction high crossing at 87.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 86.10. Second
resistance is the reaction high crossing at 87.40. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 80.50. Second support is the
reaction low crossing at 79.25.

February cattle closed up $1.10 at 83.28.

February cattle gapped up and closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidated some of this month's decline.
The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are neutral hinting
that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 84.45 are needed to confirm that a short-
term low has been posted. If February extends this fall's decline, weekly support crossing at 81.80 is the next downside target.
First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 83.47. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at
84.45. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 81.90. Second support is weekly support crossing at 81.80.

January feeder cattle closed up $0.85 at $91.58.

January Feeder cattle gapped up and closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidated some of this fall's decline.
The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends this fall's decline, weekly support crossing at
89.75 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 92.51 would confirm that a short-term
low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 92.51. Second resistance is the reaction high
crossing at 94.40. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 90.25. Second support is weekly support crossing at 89.75.


____________________________________________________________________________

E X T R E M E F U T U R E S
____________________________________________________________________________

Updated every 10 minutes around the clock.
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WINNERS

BCX.Q11 CBOT SOYBEAN CRUSH INDEX Aug 2011 70.50 4.50 +6.77
PB.K10 FROZEN PORK BELLIES May 2010 87.5 3.0 +3.55
YC.Z09 CORN (MINI) Dec 2009 389.25 12.00 +3.18
C.Z09 CORN Dec 2009 389.25 12.00 +3.17
GCE SGI GLOBAL CARBON INDEX (EUR) 67.81 1.19 +1.79
NK.H10 NIKKEI 225 INDEX Mar 2010 10155 165 +1.65
O.Z10 OATS Dec 2010 294.0 4.5 +1.55
NIX.Z09 10 YEAR INT RATE SWAP (IMPLIED YLD) Dec 2009 3.7321 0.0520 +1.41
AA.Y$$ BUTTER (SPOT) Cash 1450 20 +1.40
LC.G10 LIVE CATTLE Feb 2010 83.275 1.100 +1.34

LOSERS

BCX.F10 CBOT SOYBEAN CRUSH INDEX Jan 2010 74.50 -4.75 -5.88
NG.F10 NATURAL GAS Jan 2010 5.163 -0.135 -2.56
JY.H10 JAPANESE YEN Mar 2010 0.011219 -0.000120 -1.06
CD.Z09 CANADIAN $ Dec 2009 0.9428 -0.0094 -0.99
CL.F10 CRUDE OIL Jan 2010 69.87 -0.67 -0.96
LB.K10 LUMBER (RANDOM LENGTH) May 2010 251.1 -2.4 -0.95
SF.H10 SWISS FRANC Mar 2010 0.9674 -0.0071 -0.73
SM.N11 SOYBEAN MEAL Jul 2011 292.0 -2.1 -0.71
EC.H10 EURO FX Mar 2010 1.4614 -0.0100 -0.68
AD.H10 AUSTRALIAN $ Mar 2010 0.9022 -0.0060 -0.66

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E X T R E M E S T O C K S
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WINNERS

CCMMW CHARTER COMMUNICATIONS WTS 6.50 1.75 +36.84
CBK CHRISTOPHER & BANKS CORP 7.65 1.63 +27.08
DAL DELTA AIR LINES 11.29 1.41 +14.27
HPJ HONG KONG HIGHPOWER TECH 8.18 0.98 +13.61
MTG MGIC INVESTMENTS CORP 5.17 0.57 +12.39
OFLX OMEGA FLEX INC 17.60 1.76 +11.11
TREE TREE.COM INC 8.35 0.83 +11.04
ARCL ARCHIPELAGO LEARNING 18.930 1.880 +11.03
WHI W HOLDING CO 22.9700 2.2201 +10.70
HRLY HERLEY INDUSTRIES INC 13.47 1.30 +10.68

LOSERS

SIGA SIGA TECHNOLOGIES INC 5.22 -2.10 -28.69
DEER DEER CONSUMER PRODUCTS 12.3899 -3.4501 -21.78
TULCF TELUS CORP 28.0200 -3.9373 -12.32
III IMPERIAL METALS CORP 13.58 -1.72 -11.24
USEG US ENERGY CORP WY 5.0101 -0.5699 -10.21
CAVO CAVICO CORP 5.16 -0.58 -10.10
IPMLF IMPERIAL METALS NEW 13.0237 -1.4548 -10.05
SNCTO SOV CAP TRUST IV 30.00 -3.00 -9.09
ETLE ECOTALITY INC 5.25 -0.50 -8.70
CRE CARE INVESTMENT TRUST 7.29 -0.69 -8.65

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