Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Market close report for 12-15-09

Corn
Corn futures finished at the same price as midday. Daily
corn technical indicators are positive to price. If prices
close at this level for the week, it will be the highest
close in nearly six months. Harvest is normally at 100% this
time of year compared to the 92% reported by the USDA
yesterday. Those states that are still significantly behind
normal harvest dates are the same states that have had
weather issues most of the fall; Illinois at 90%, Michigan
at 89%, Minnesota at 91%, North Dakota at 60% and South
Dakota at 92%. Private exporters have announced corn sales
of 236,000 MT so far this week for 2009/10 delivery. Index
Funds and Large Specs decreased their net long positions by
a significant amount as of last Tuesday the reporting period
for the CFTC, which could be due to the expiration of the
December contract and position squaring before the end of
the year. March corn futures at $4.07 ½, down 1 cent, May
corn futures at $4.18 ½, down 1 cent

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Soybeans
Soybean futures prices lost value going into the close to
finish unchanged on the day after being on the plus side
most of the session. Export sales remain above average with
another announcement by private exports of 290,000 MT of
soybeans sold to China, for 2009/10 delivery. China has been
the main buyer of U.S. soybeans. China demand will
seasonally shift to the southern hemisphere in the
March/April time frame. Cash soybean basis is firm. Soybean
inspections for export were 1,458,971 MT this past week.
Higher crude oil prices that would normally benefit the
price of soybeans were offset by the higher dollar and the
lower stock market indices. Soybean stocks, in select
elevators and terminals around the country, decreased by
6.141 million bushel from last week. January soybean futures
are at $10.55, unchanged January soymeal futures are at
$316.80, up 0.60 points, January soy oil futures are at
39.64 cents, up 0.01 points

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Wheat
Wheat prices finished the day lower on all three exchanges.
Wheat futures have moved into a flat trading range over the
past five days. Wheat weather conditions have been generally
favorable with the crop protected from below normal
temperatures by a deep blanket of snow. Japan is in the
market for an additional 126,000 MT of feed wheat above
their normal tender. Wheat inspections were below last week
at 354,755 MT but gulf basis levels remain firm. Wheat
stocks in select elevators and terminals around the country
decreased 4.259 million bushels from last week. Prices for
the moment seem to be in balance with the known
supply/demand factors. There was not much change in the net
positions of traders in the CFTC report Friday. Overall
total open interest only increased by 89 contracts for the
CBOT wheat. March CBOT wheat futures are at $5.36 ¾, down 6
¾ cents, March KCBT wheat futures are at $5.26 ½, down 7
½ cents, March MGEX wheat futures are at $5.37 ¼, down 10
½ cents

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Cattle
Cattle futures have recovered over 100% of last week's drop
in price closing above $82.00 on the day. Boxed beef prices
were mixed this afternoon. Choice beef is at $138.31, down
0.22 and Select at $131.31, up 0.59. Last week's cattle
numbers were fairly good in the Five Area Direct Cattle on
lower money than the previous week. Average totals last week
were $79.20 for Steers and $79.35 for Heifers on average for
all grades on the live. Steers sold for $127.52 and Heifers
for $127.14 on average for all grades on the dressed. The
January Cattle crush closed at 122 and the March at 117.
Cash feeders were steady at the Oklahoma City auction
yesterday. There was an overall total decrease in open
interest in the Cattle between December 1st and 8th on the
CFTC report released Friday for the reporting period ending
on the 8th. Note that cattle prices also declined that week,
meaning there was long liquidation in the market during that
period. December live cattle futures are at $82.10, up 105
cents, February live cattle futures are at $84.92, up 97
cents, January feeder cattle futures are at $93.02, up 112
cents

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Hogs
Lean Hogs futures finished near the high of the day on the
daily charts and near the May highs on the weekly chart.
Iowa/Minnesota direct hogs had a range of $54.00 to $64.75,
with a weighted average price of $63.64 yesterday. Pork
trading is slow to moderate with light to moderate demand
and offerings. Carcass prices finished this afternoon at
$71.98, up 0.84, Loins at $89.84, up $3.84, Butts were
$69.76, down 0.05, Picnics were $54.54, down 0.52, Ribs were
$103.95, up $1.98, Hams at $68.43, down $2.17, and Bellies
at $75.83, up $2.39. Pork production for 2010 is forecast to
increase but third quarter production is forecast to drop
268 million pounds from the third quarter of 2009. June Hogs
closed at $78.07. February lean hog futures are at $67.42,
up 155 cents, April lean hog futures are at $71.25, up 92
cents

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Cotton
The cotton market succumbed to the higher dollar and
finished lower. The U.S. Dollar Index is nearing the October
highs. Cotton harvest, normally complete by this time of
year is at 91% finished, moving up 3 points from last week.
Rain continues to fall in the Delta states with below normal
temperatures for the region. The Index Funds have been
decreasing their net long position since the week of
November 9th. Total volume more than doubled from Friday on
Monday's trading activity and total open interest increased
over 5,000 contracts on new buying in the market yesterday.
On Friday the CFTC will give us today's numbers on who was
buying and selling for the Tuesday to Tuesday time reporting
time frame for the Commitment of Traders. March cotton
futures are at 74.88 cents, down 89 points, May cotton
futures are at 75.85 cents, down 88 points

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