Close - November 06, 2009
Corn
Corn futures prices closed lower today and only a penny
higher for the week compared to last Friday's close. Crude
oil closed over 200 points lower and Ethanol finished at
1.852 down 1.5 cents. Most of the news is focused on harvest
progress and combines should continue to run round the clock
over the weekend. Weather forecasts remain good for harvest
through November 11th but then above normal rain and
temperatures are forecast until November 19th. Some of
today's selling could be attributed to pre-weekend hedging.
Analyst's estimates for 2009/10 corn production at 12.995
billion bushels with a range of 12.674 to 13.40 billion
bushels for USDA's monthly production report. The monthly
production report will be released November 10th at 7:30
a.m. The October USDA report estimated corn production at
13.018 billion bushels. December corn futures at $3.67, down
9 ½ cents March corn futures at $3.81, down 9 ¼ cents
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Soybeans
Soybean futures closed with double digit losses for the
second day on commercial hedge pressure with harvest in full
swing. The announcement by private exporters of 356,000 MT
of soybeans for delivery to China in the 2009/10 marketing
year somewhat limited price declines. Analysts are
estimating soybean production at 3.269 billion bushels on
average with a range of 3.187 to 3.379 billion bushels for
the monthly USDA crop production report coming out November
10th. Wet weather returns to states east of the Rockies
after November 11th through the 19th. Tonight's CFTC report
showed an increase in Commercials net shorts as of Tuesdays
reporting period offset by the Large Spec increasing their
net long position. November soybean futures are at $9.48,
down 19 cents December soymeal futures are at $288.80, down
2.50 points December soy oil futures are at 36.77 cents,
down 41 points
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Wheat
Wheat futures prices followed the other grains closing
sharply lower. This past week of drier and warmer weather in
the Midwest has allowed winter wheat seedings to advance.
Today's US Dollar, moving to higher ground, did not
translate to higher grain prices. USDA has reported adequate
global supply on the last several monthly WASDE reports and
that is certainly reflected in the decline of US export
business. Basis levels for HRW wheat is steady with slow
farmer selling. Canadian grain production for 2009/10 is
forecast to drop by over 15% from last year because of less
than ideal weather conditions in 2009. December CBOT wheat
futures are at $4.97 ¼, down 15 cents December KCBT wheat
futures are at $5.01, down 16 ½ cents December MGEX wheat
futures are at $5.18 ¼, down 10 ¼ cents
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Cattle
Cattle futures closed sharply lower opening under the 18 day
moving average line and continuing to sell off through out
the day. Unemployment number of 10.2% released this morning
is basically saying over 10% of the work force is living on
a reduced income if they are receiving unemployment
benefits. Those consumers are stretching the grocery dollar.
Generally consumer confidence levels remain conservative.
The Five Area Direct Cattle sales numbers were fair for a
Thursday. Steers sold for $86.27 and Heifers for $86.49 for
all grades on average on the live basis. Steers sold for
$134.43 and Heifers for 136.32 for all grades on average on
the dressed basis. Boxed beef prices are lower with Choice
beef at $140.78, down 0.55 and Select beef at $135.44, down
0.32. The November cattle crush closed at 175 and the
January cattle crush at 119. December live cattle futures
are at $85.00, down 135 cents November feeder cattle futures
are at $94.65, down 95 cents
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Hogs
Lean Hog futures closed lower and Bellies higher. Pork
trading is slow, with light demand and mostly moderate
offerings. Pork prices were mostly lower with Carcass values
at $58.63, down 1.03, Loin are $64.34, down 1.29, Butts are
$59.59, down 0.28, Picnics are $41.74, up 0.18, Ribs are
$86.75, down 0.03, Hams are $57.64, down 2.02 and Bellies
are $71.48, down 1.22. Iowa/Minnesota direct hogs traded
between $44.50 and $56.00 on Thursday, with a weighted
average of $53.85. Some of today's pressure could be
reflective off the Goldman Roll, but prices finished lower
across the board. Yesterday's open interest declined by
2,275 contracts in the December and increased by 1,676
contracts in the February. Commercials added to their net
short position this week by over 1200 contracts with the
Large Spec and Index Funds adding to their net long position
from last weeks CFTC report. December Lean Hogs are at
$55.70, down 90 cents February Lean Hogs are at $62.85, down
62 cents
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Cotton
Cotton prices closed lower on the day. Traders expect
Tuesday's USDA report to show lower 2009/10 cotton
production and lower exports and mill use. Rain, in copious
amounts, are once again forecast to fall in the Delta
region, part of the rebound effect of the former hurricane
Ida. October jobless claims increased to 10.2%. Unemployment
takes awhile to recover after the general economy. Some
believe the GDP 4.5 number for the fourth quarter released
this week, signals an upturn in the economy and today's Dow
finish above the 10,000 level indicates investors may also
agree. Today's CFTC report showed an increase in Commercial
net short positions. December cotton futures are at 66.54
cents, down 87 points March cotton futures are at 70.33
cents, down 66 points
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