KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
7:45 AM ET. Nov 21 ICSC/Goldman Sachs Chain Store Sales
Chain Store Sales Index - WoW (previous -0.1%)
Chain Store Sales Index - YoY (previous +2.4%)
8:30 AM ET. 3 Quarter GDP, preliminary
GDP (expected +2.7%; previous -1.2%)
GDP 1st Est. (previous +3.5%)
Chain-Weighted Price Index (expected +0.8%; previous +0.8%)
Corporate Profits (previous -12.6%)
Purchase Price Index (previous +1.6%)
PCE Price Index (previous +2.8%)
Real Final Sales (previous +2.5%)
8:55 AM ET. Nov 21 Redbook Index
MoM % Change (previous +4.4%)
12MonChgPct (previous +1.8%)
52WkChgPct (previous +2%)
9:00 AM ET. Sept Case-Shiller Home Price Index
SP Composite-10 MoM (previous +1.3%)
SP Composite-10 YoY (previous -10.6%)
SP Composite-20 MoM (previous +1.2%)
SP Composite-20 (expected -9%; previous -11.3%)
10:00 AM ET. Nov Richmond Fed Survey
Manufacturing Index (previous 7)
Retail Revenues Index (previous ???23)
Services Revenue Index (previous ???22)
Shipments Index (previous 11)
10:00 AM ET. Nov Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index
Consumer Confidence Index (expected 47; previous 47.7)
Expectation Index (expected 65.7)
Present Situation Index (previous 20.7)
2:00 PM ET. FOMC Minutes
4:30 PM ET. Nov 20 API Oil Industry Report
Crude Stocks (Net Change) (previous -4.37M)
Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (previous -963K)
Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (previous +507K)
Refinery Runs (previous 79.6%)
5:00 PM ET. Nov 22 ABC/Washington Post Consumer Confidence Index
ABC News Consumer Confidence Index (previous ???45)
Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via MarketClub (http://www.marketclub.com/)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes
GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes
closed weaker today on some profit-taking pressure and
position evening before the Thanksgiving holiday. The
bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage as price uptrends on the daily charts are still
in place. However, don't be surprised to see some more
profit-taking pressure in the stock indexes heading into
the holidays. Prices have rallied during the seasonally
bearish months of September and October, and could well
sell off during the seasonally bullish month of December.
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INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=interest
December U.S. T-Bonds closed up 24/32 at 121 21/32 today.
Prices closed near the session high and hit a fresh six-
week high today. The stock posted losses today, which did
support buying interest in U.S. Treasuries. There was
also a very well-subscribed U.S. Treasury auction today.
Bulls have the near-term technical advantage and gained
more upside momentum today.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy
ENERGIES: January crude oil closed down $1.45 at
$76.11 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session
low today and hit a fresh six-week low. A weaker U.S.
stock market was bearish for crude oil today. Crude oil
bulls do still have the slight overall near-term
technical advantage. However, the bulls are fading.
Follow-through selling pressure on Wednesday would
produce some near-term chart damage.
January heating oil closed down 261 points at $1.9915
today. Prices closed nearer the session low again today
and hit a fresh six-week low. Bulls still have the slight
overall near-term technical advantage. However, bulls are
fading and prices are trending lower from the October
high.
January (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 353 points
at $1.9640 today. Prices closed nearer the session low
today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage, but are fading. The next upside price
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the November high of $2.0785.
January natural gas closed down 2.4 cents at $4.767
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Serious near-
term chart damage has occurred recently. Bears have the
solid near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at last week's high of $5.084.
CURRENCIES
CURRENCIES: The December Euro
currency closed down 6 points at 1.4966 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today. The bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices
hover near the recent highs. Euro bulls' next upside
price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the October high of 1.5062.
The December Japanese yen closed up 57 points at 1.1294
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and
hit a fresh seven-week high. Bulls have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart.
The December Swiss franc closed up 6 points at .9914
today. Prices closed nearer the session high again today.
Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage as
prices hover near the recent highs. The next upside price
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
resistance at the contract high of .9971.
The December Canadian dollar closed down 28 points at
.9447 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today.
Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical
playing field. Bulls' next upside price objective is
producing a close above solid chart resistance at the
November high of .9599.
The December British pound closed down 41 points at
1.6577 today. Prices closed nearer the session high
today. Bulls still have the slight near-term technical
advantage. Prices are still in a six-week-old uptrend on
the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for
the bulls is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the November high of 1.6876.
The December U.S. dollar index closed down 5 points at
75.16 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today.
Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage, amid no early clues of a market bottom being
close at hand.
December U.S. T-Bonds closed up 24/32 at 121 21/32 today.
Prices closed near the session high and hit a fresh six-
week high today. The stock posted losses today, which did
support buying interest in U.S. Treasuries. There was
also a very well-subscribed U.S. Treasury auction today.
Bulls have the near-term technical advantage and gained
more upside momentum today.
GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes
closed weaker today on some profit-taking pressure and
position evening before the Thanksgiving holiday. The
bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage as price uptrends on the daily charts are still
in place. However, don't be surprised to see some more
profit-taking pressure in the stock indexes heading into
the holidays. Prices have rallied during the seasonally
bearish months of September and October, and could well
sell off during the seasonally bullish month of December.
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PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals
METALS: December gold futures closed up $4.10 at
$1,168.80 today. Prices closed near the session high
today and closed at a fresh contract and all-time record
high close. Not much new. Gold bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. There are still no
early clues of a market top being close at hand for gold.
December silver futures closed down 8.5 cents at $18.525
an ounce today. Prices closed near mid-range today and
were pressured by mild profit taking. The key "outside
markets" were in a mostly bearish posture for silver
today, as crude oil prices and the U.S. stock indexes
were lower, while the U.S. dollar index was near steady.
The silver bulls still have the solid near-term technical
advantage.
December N.Y. copper closed down 90 points at 312.65
cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high and
saw mild profit taking. The key "outside markets" were in
a mostly bearish posture for copper today, as crude oil
prices and the U.S. stock indexes were lower, while the
U.S. dollar index was near steady. Copper bulls still
have the solid near-term technical advantage.
FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=food
SOFTS: March sugar closed up 1 point at 22.15 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit
another fresh two-week low. The key "outside markets"
were in a mostly bearish posture for sugar today, as
crude oil prices and the U.S. stock indexes were lower,
while the U.S. dollar index was near steady. Prices are
trending lower from the early-September high. Bears have
the near-term technical advantage.
March coffee closed down 130 points at 136.10 cents
today. Prices closed near the session low again today.
The key "outside markets" were in a mostly bearish
posture for coffee today, as crude oil prices and the
U.S. stock indexes were lower, while the U.S. dollar
index was near steady. Coffee bulls and bears are back on
a level near-term technical playing field.
March cocoa closed down $45 at $3,248 today. Prices
closed near the session low today. The key "outside
markets" were in a mostly bearish posture for cocoa
today, as crude oil prices and the U.S. stock indexes
were lower, while the U.S. dollar index was near steady.
Cocoa bulls do still have the overall technical
advantage.
March cotton closed up 104 points at 75.52 cents
today. Prices closed near the session high today
and closed at a fresh 14-month high close. The key
"outside markets" were in a mostly bearish posture
for cotton today, as crude oil prices and the U.S.
stock indexes were lower, while the U.S. dollar
index was near steady. Yet, cotton rallied anyway,
which is another bullish clue for the market.
January orange juice closed up 35 points at $1.1195
today. Prices closed nearer the session low again today
and hit a fresh three-week low. The key "outside markets"
were in a mostly bearish posture for FCOJ today, as crude
oil prices and the U.S. stock indexes were lower, while
the U.S. dollar index was near steady. The FCOJ bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
January lumber futures closed up $8.50 at $234.80 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high. The key "outside
markets" were in a mostly bearish posture for lumber
today, as crude oil prices and the U.S. stock indexes
were lower, while the U.S. dollar index was near steady.
Yet, lumber posted solid gains, which is another bullish
clue for lumber.
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GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains
GRAINS: March corn futures closed down 10 1/4 cents at
$3.93 today. Prices closed nearer the session low again
today and hit a fresh three-week low. The key "outside
markets" were in a mostly bearish posture for corn today,
as crude oil prices and the U.S. stock indexes were
lower, while the U.S. dollar index was near steady. Some
near-term chart damage was inflicted today.
January soybeans closed up 5 cents at $10.47 a bushel
today. Prices closed near the session high today and
closed at a fresh 13-week high close. The key "outside
markets" were in a mostly bearish posture for soybeans
today, as crude oil prices and the U.S. stock indexes
were lower, while the U.S. dollar index was near steady.
Yet, soybeans posted gains anyway, which is another
bullish clue for soybeans. Bulls have the near-term
technical advantage.
March soybean meal closed up $1.40 at $305.20 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls have
the near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at the August high of $312.60.
March bean oil closed up 20 points at 40.42 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bean oil
bulls have the near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at
the June high of 41.92 cents.
March Chicago SRW wheat closed down 25 cents at $5.53 1/2
today. Prices closed near the session low and hit a fresh
two-week low today. The key "outside markets" were in a
mostly bearish posture for wheat today, as crude oil
prices and the U.S. stock indexes were lower, while the
U.S. dollar index was near steady. Some chart damage
occurred in wheat today, and more serious near-term
damage would occur with follow-through selling pressure
on Wednesday.
LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
LIVESTOCK: February live cattle closed down $0.27 at
$85.55 today. Prices closed near mid-range again today.
The key "outside markets" were in a mostly bearish
posture for cattle today, as crude oil prices and the
U.S. stock indexes were lower, while the U.S. dollar
index was near steady. Bears still have the near-term
technical advantage in cattle. A four-week-old downtrend
is still in place on the daily chart.
January feeder cattle closed up $0.32 at $93.20 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a fresh
two-week high today on short covering in a bear market.
Bears still have the solid near-term technical advantage
with no early clues of a market bottom being close at
hand.
February lean hogs closed up $0.52 at $66.05 today.
Prices hit another fresh 5.5-month high today and closed
nearer the session high. The key "outside markets" were
in a mostly bearish posture for hogs today, as crude oil
prices and the U.S. stock indexes were lower, while the
U.S. dollar index was near steady. Yet, hogs posted gains
anyway, which is another bullish clue.
February pork bellies closed up $0.87 at $86.67 today.
Prices closed near the session high today. Short covering
was featured. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term
technical playing field. However, prices are in a four-
week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
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