Run-of-River Hydropower

In uncovering this single company's catalyst for market success, a much larger and tremendously profitable global trend emerged.

You see, even though hydroelectric power remains the world's largest utility-scale renewable energy, there's now a better, more efficient way to generate electricity from rushing rivers.

It's called run-of-river hydropower, and it's quickly becoming the new mainstream for consumers and investors alike.

That's partially because large-scale hydropower gets little love from environmentalists in developed countries who say dams do too much damage to alluvial areas.

The reservoir-dam model also takes a hit as old, Depression-era engineering in this age of smart grids. No one wants to pitch a plan most Americans associate with Herbert Hoover!

Anyway, the best spots for dams have already been picked out and transformed by decades of surveying and construction. Developing countries may have room to build like beavers, but there are other obstacles to face.

On the way to becoming the world's largest water-driven power station, China's Three Gorges Dam project displaced over 1.2 million people and outraged everyone from ornithologists to archaeologists.

Three Gorges Dam itself is over six times as long as Hoover Dam, between Arizona and Nevada, and almost 50% larger than Washington state's Grand Coulee Dam (pictured above) — America's largest.

It's too bad China looked down the historical stream —not up — when officials decided to dam the Yangtze.

If Beijing's top brass had it to do over now, they'd see that run-of-river hydroelectricity is already changing the way the world gets power from water.

Take Canada, for example, where investors have taken single-day gains upwards of 20% on run-of-river's political progress. . .

Run-of-River Scores a Win in Canada

In the province of British Columbia, run-of-river power has been run through the political mill lately.

The New Democratic Party stumped for a 6-month moratorium on private power projects that encompassed several clean energy technologies. Hydro was included on the forced dormancy list, so were wind and biomass (the local solar resource is negligible).

But the Liberal Party won, and Canadian clean energy investors didn't just breathe a sigh of relief — they also propelled shares of companies like Plutonic Power (TSX:PCC) to new highs.

Vancouver-based Plutonic Power's stock jumped by more than 20% on the heels of the May 12 vote.

From March 3 to June 3, PCC shot up by 83%!

That one company has at least 17 small-scale hydroelectricity generation sites planned for the hilly headwaters of Bute Inlet, a fjord just north of Vancouver and Vancouver Island.

Below, you see the layout of how run-of-river generation works in Plutonic Power's proposals:



This run-of-river design diverts some water into a pipe called a penstock, which channels the river water into turbines for generation. The water then goes back into the stream with little or no net effect on downstream water levels.

That's perhaps the most salient difference between dams and ROR projects, in terms of environmental impact and the regulatory hoops specialty firms have to jump through.

Hoover Dam, that national landmark and symbol of how long hydro has given power to the American Southwest, has a generating capacity of just over 2000 MW.

If approved, Plutonic's modular Bute Inlet array will be optimized to generate more than 1000 MW!

That's enough to power 300,000 homes. But of course, it's only a small piece of the puzzle to get British Columbia's energy mix more accessible, localized, and efficient.

Moving Beyond British Columbia

"It's not a given that our business plan advances," Plutonic CEO Donald McInness told the Vancouver Sun_,"but without the Liberals winning, we certainly weren't going to advance at all."

That Liberal win keeps alive a process initiated by provincial utility British Columbia Hydro and Power that puts new, renewable generation sources up against each other.

BC Hydro projects consumer electricity demand growth of up to 35% before 2030.

Competition is good — we're not looking for sweetheart stock plays here. We want winners.

In addition to Plutonic, top bidders in BC are likely to include Finavera Renewables (Vancouver:FVR),Innergex Renewable Energy (TSX:INE), Naikun Wind Energy Group (Vancouver:NKW), and Swift Power Corp.

But it does look like Plutonic's run-of-river technology is headed for the medal stand when it comes to expansion of electricity resources and access around the world.

The company also has the backing of General Electric (NYSE:GE). Together, they're lauching joint bids and developing synergies that could take successful application in British Columbia to GE's worldwide operations.

News of a joint GE-Plutonic venture into BC's wind energy industry announced in late May further stoked positive investor sentiment on the smaller partner.

On that note, let's look westward from Canada, to the other side of the Pacific Ocean. . .

Run-of-River Hydropower in the Philippines

Q: Which country is #2 in geothermal production, trailing only the U.S.?

A: The Philippines. And in another few years, the power-packed archipelago could overtake Uncle Sam.

The Philippines is drawing $10 billion over the next 10 years into its burgeoning renewable energy infrastructure... and that money will go toward more than just boosting an already impressive geothermal industry.

Run-of-river hydropower companies will play an integral role in the island chain's move to double its clean energy capacity.

With 1,081 potential hydroelectricity generation sites spread throughout the country's 7000+ islands, it's easy to see why the Philippines is part of a growing list of nations embracing run-of-river. "Mini-hydro," as some call it there, uses generation sizes between 101 KW and 10 MW to expand efficient electricity access with minimal transmission distances.

Moreover, local hydropower operators have the luxury of tapping into an established renewable energy infrastructure.

The Philippines: Rich in Renewables

The Philippines now gets 23% of its electricity from a combination of hydroelectricity, solar, wind, biomass, and above all, geothermal — up from 21% in 2005.

Rich underground energy resources have made it easier for the Philippines to move away from its two-pronged colonial past (first Spain called the islands its own, then the U.S. took over until 1946) and into relative energy independence.

To take autonomy a step further, President Gloria Arroyo launched a new Philippine Energy Plan in 2005 to propel the country to 60% self-sufficiency by 2010.

The Philippine government is dialing back on coal imports and ramping up oil and gas exploration. But like other countries with near-term plans to maximize existing petroleum resources, the shot-callers in Manila know renewable energy is the real long-lasting way to satisfy growing energy demand.

With Arroyo's 2010 clean energy target fast approaching, it's more and more evident that the government's additional goal of doubling capacity will take more than geothermal alone.

And they've added a new goal, too: Energy Secretary Angelo Reyes says the national objective is "to double the power being generated from renewable sources, from 4,500 MW to 9,000 MW in 10 years."

Over the same 10 years, homegrown and foreign firms will combine in joint venture investments — outsiders are limited to 40% stakes in any given RE project — that could exceed the $10 billion mark.

To stimulate that spending, the Manila-based Philippine government is offering attractive tax advantages:

• Seven years without income tax

• Duty-free equipment imports

• 0% VAT (value-added tax) on electricity sales

If the resource potential alone weren't enough, the tax sweeteners have drawn more than a dozen letters of interest from local and international power companies.

An invitation to to develop known resources, tax-free, in a country where consumption is expected to grow at an average of 6% annually? You bet they're interested.

Our interest is piqued, too. Even with its thousands of islands, the Philippines makes up one big piece of the global clean energy puzzle. As for hydropower, the country joins Canada, India, China, and others where run-of-river is transitioning from feasability studies into practical implementation.

Hydropower's Part in the Indian Renewable Energy Boom

India's market for renewable energy and related technology is growing by 25% per year. India is a country full of rivers and streams.

In fact, rivers like the Ganges and Brahmaputra are the lifelines of the whole nation, connecting rural areas to urban and, with run-of-river hydropower, linking underserved areas to utilities and economic opportunities.

It takes a special kind of company, with plenty of local familiarity and technological know-how, to advance next-generation hydropower in India. We think we've found just the company.

You see, there are dozens of Indian companies taking full advantage of renewable energy momentum right now. But there's only one that boasts renewable energy assets totaling 140 megawatts — and can be bought and sold right here in the United States. . . just like any other stock in your portfolio.

But what's really exciting about this company is that it's moving quite aggressively on new run-of-river hydro projects. And for good reason.

In early May, the company's first two run-of-river hydro plants went online. Both are 25-megawatt plants, and both are expected to boost next year's revenue by $19.8 million.

So it's no surprise that a third run-of-river plant is currently under construction, and is expected to be ready by Q3.

And just to sweeten the deal, the company is also expected to benefit from the sale of certified emission reductions (CERs), which have been averaging 18.37 per ton. At that price, the company could generate $5.08 million in carbon credit revenue this year alone!

Of course, even though you can trade it right here at home, few investors have a clue that this Indian powerhouse even exists. Which is unfortunate. . . because this thing is a sleeping giant.

Bottom line: This stock is currently trading around $1.06 a share. But by the end of the summer (in about 3 months), we should be looking at no less than $1.94 a share. . . and a gain in excess of 83%.