KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR: Thursday, June 3, 2010
8:15 AM ET. May ADP National Employment Report
Private Payrolls Forecast (expected +75000; previous +32000)
8:30 AM ET. 1 Quarter Productivity & Costs, revised
Non-Farm Productivity (expected +3.2%; previous +3.6%)
Unit Labor Costs (expected -1.3%; previous -1.6%)
8:30 AM ET. May 29 Jobless Claims
Weekly Jobless Claims (expected 455K; previous 460K)
Weekly Jobless Claims Net Change (expected -5K; previous -14K)
Cont Jobless Claims (prior week) (previous 4607000)
Cont Jobless Claims Net Chg (prior week) (previous -49K)
10:00 AM ET. May 22 DJ-BTMU Economic Barometer
DJ-BTMU Business Barometer (previous -0.6%)
DJ-BTMU Business Barometer (52 Wk) (previous +3.9%)
10:00 AM ET. April Factory Orders
Total Orders (expected +1.7%; previous +1.1%)
Orders, Ex-Defense (previous +1.3%)
Orders, Ex-Transportation (previous +3.1%)
Durable Goods Revised (previous -0.6%)
10:00 AM ET. May ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Index
Non-Manufacturing PMI (expected 56; previous 55.4)
Non-Manufacturing Business Index (previous 60.3)
Prices Index (previous 64.7)
Employment Index (previous 49.5)
New Orders Index (previous 58.2)
10:30 AM ET. May 28 EIA Natural Gas Inventories, in billion cubic feet
Total Working Gas in Storage (previous 2269)
Total Working Gas in Storage (Net Change) (previous +104)
11:00 AM ET. May 28 US Energy Dept Oil Inventories
Crude Oil Stocks (previous 365.15M)
Crude Oil Stocks (Net Change) (expected -200K; previous +2.46M)
Gasoline Stocks (previous 221.63M)
Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (expected -800K)
Distillate Stocks (previous 152.54M)
Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (expected +200K; previous -267K)
Refinery Usage (expected 87.9%; previous 87.8%)
4:30 PM ET. June 2 Fed Discount Window Borrowings, in dollars
Primary Credit Borrowings (previous 4.21B)
Primary Credit Borrowings W/E Daily Avg. (previous 4.32B)
Discount Window Borrowings (previous 74.94B)
Discount Window Borrowings W/E Daily Avg. (previous 75.22B)
4:30 PM ET. June 2 Foreign Central Bank Holdings, in dollars
Foreign US Debt Holdings (previous 3.08T)
US Foreign Agency Holdings (previous 806.45B)
Foreign Treasury Holdings (previous 2.27T)
4:30 PM ET. May 24 Money Supply
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=indexesThe June NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight and trading above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1872.83. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1872.83 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off April's high, May's low crossing at 1730.25 is the next downside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1890.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1932.00. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1834.67. Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 1754.25. The June NASDAQ 100 was up 2.75 pts. at 1881.50 as of 5:57 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by June NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.
The June S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it extended Wednesday's short covering rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1109.00 are needed to confirm that a double bottom with February's low has been posted. If June resumes this spring's decline, February's low crossing at 1035.90 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 1106.70. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1109.00. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 1036.60. Second support is February's low crossing at 1035.90. The June S&P 500 Index was up 4.30 pts. at 1101.00 as of 6:00 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.
The June S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it extended Wednesday's short covering rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1109.00 are needed to confirm that a double bottom with February's low has been posted. If June resumes this spring's decline, February's low crossing at 1035.90 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 1106.70. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1109.00. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 1036.60. Second support is February's low crossing at 1035.90. The June S&P 500 Index was up 4.30 pts. at 1101.00 as of 6:00 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=interestJune T-bonds were lower overnight and is poised to extend last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 122-24 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 126-25 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 123-26. Second resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 124-09. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 122-24. Second support is last Thursday's low crossing at 122-21.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=energyJuly heating oil was slightly higher overnight as it extends Wednesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 202.18 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes last month's decline, last July's low crossing at 177.62 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 202.18. Second resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 204.10. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 195.55. Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 184.83.
July unleaded gas was higher overnight as it extends Wednesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might have been posted with last Tuesday's low. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 205.84 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If July resumes this spring's decline, September's low crossing at 187.96 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 205.84. Second resistance is the overnight high crossing at 206.80. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 196.68. Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 188.88.
July Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last week's low. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that additional gains are possible near-term. If July extends last week's rally, May's high crossing at 4.587 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.241 would temper the near-term bullish outlook. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 4.473. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 4.393. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.241. Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 4.036.
CURRENCIESThe June Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the consolidation pattern of the past two weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 85.33 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews this year's rally, the 87% retracement level of 2009's decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 87.79 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 87.63. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of 2009's decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 87.79. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 86.10. Second support is last Thursday's low crossing at 85.94.
The June Euro was slightly higher overnight as it extends the consolidation pattern of the past two weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are neutral signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If June extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 118.350 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 126.740 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 123.526. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 124.462. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 121.120. Second support is monthly support crossing at 118.350.
The June British Pound was higher overnight as it consolidates above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4589. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 1.5054 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.4516 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1.4772. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.5054. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4589. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.4516.
The June Swiss Franc was slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging and are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at .8790 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off April's high, weekly support crossing at .8523 is the next downside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at .8722. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .8790. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at .8527. Second support is weekly support crossing at .8523.
The June Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extended Wednesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 97.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 94.75 would temper the near-term bullish outlook. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 96.76. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 97.60. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.73. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 94.75.
The June Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it extends Wednesday's breakout below the 20-day moving average crossing at .10939. If June extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at .11759 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at .11014 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .10939. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at .11014. First support is the overnight low crossing at .10785. Second support is the reaction low crossing at .10759.
July silver was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off the late-May low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 18.890 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 18.148 would temper this week's rally. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 18.735. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 18.890. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 18.148. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 17.410.
July copper was lower overnight as it consolidates below the 10-day moving average crossing at 306.63. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the overnight decline, May's low crossing at 290.05 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 318.70 are needed to renew the rally off May's low. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 318.70. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 325.30. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 297.05. Second support is May's low crossing at 290.05.
FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=foodJuly cocoa closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 31.13 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 29.28 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
July sugar closed lower on Wednesday as it extends last week's breakout below the 20-day moving average. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends today's decline, May's low crossing at 13.00 is the next downside target. If July renews this winter's decline, monthly support crossing at 12.14 is the next downside target.
July cotton closed lower on Wednesday as it extends Tuesday's downside breakout of this spring's trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's decline, the 25% retracement level of the 2009-2010-rally crossing at 78.17 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 81.33 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 79.25 would open the door for a larger-degree decline this spring.
July wheat was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 4.39 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.72 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.59 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.73 1/4. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 4.42. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.39 1/4.
July Kansas City Wheat closed down 4 1/4-cents at 4.73 3/4.
July Kansas City wheat closed lower on Wednesday as is extends the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 4.61 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.96 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.86 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.96 1/4. First support is today's low crossing at 4.73. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.61.
July Minneapolis wheat was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. The mid-range overnight close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends Tuesday's decline, March's low crossing at 4.92 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.15 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.06 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.15. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 4.96 1/4. Second support is March's low crossing at 4.92 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX July soybeans were higher overnight and the mid-range overnight close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.46 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off April's high, February's low crossing at 9.20 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.46 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 9.56. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 9.27 3/4. Second support is February's low crossing at 9.20 1/2.
July soybean meal was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high. The low-range close overnight set the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July resumes this spring's decline, the 62% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at 268.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 275.20 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 275.20. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 279.90. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 269.50. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at 268.40.
July soybean oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 37.51 would temper the friendly outlook. If July renews last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 39.11 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 38.52. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 39.11. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 37.51. Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 36.82.
July hogs closed lower on Wednesday and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 83.52 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off April's high, the 38% retracement level of the August-April rally crossing at 78.34 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 83.52. Second resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 83.70. First support is the reaction low crossing at 79.90. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the August-April rally crossing at 78.22.
July bellies closed up $0.45 at $102.50.
July bellies closed higher on Wednesday and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends last week's rally, May's high crossing at 103.50 is the next upside target. If July renews the decline off May's high, the reaction low crossing at 95.75 is the next downside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 103.15. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 103.50. First support is the reaction low crossing at 98.55. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 95.75.
August cattle closed up $1.13 at 90.75.
August cattle closed higher on Wednesday ending a two-day short correction. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.03 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If August extends the decline off May's high, the 62% retracement level of the December-May rally crossing at 88.11 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 90.95. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.03. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 88.90. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-May rally crossing at 88.11.
August feeder cattle closed up $0.18 at $109.65.
August Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.98 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If August extends the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the December-April rally crossing at 104.81 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 110.08. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.98. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 107.23. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-April rally crossing at 104.81.
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