Sunday, January 10, 2010

Up-Trend Outlook: TSTC, ACTU, FLWS

Telestone (TSTC) Tops 52-Week High on Media Support; Actuate Corp (ACTU) Continues Rise on Acquisition; 1-800-Flowers.com (FLWS) Climbs on Undervaluation.

Three SmallCaps Advance on Outlooks

TSTC: Huge Q3 Percentages in September Still Dazzle the Pundits

ACTU: Analyst Sees Acquisition Pumping Up New Revenues

FLWS: ‘Recovery’ Holidays Behind and Ahead Propel Stock

Gaining 3.20 % this morning is Telestone Technologies Corporation (TSTC)http://www.telestone.com/ currently trading in the $24.47 range. TSTC is a very heavily traded SmallCap with a 3-Month average daily trading volume of 637,225 shares. At this price, TSTC topped its 52-week high of $23.91 set yesterday. TSTC has trailing twelve month revenues of $53 million with a corresponding diluted EPS of $1.02. Last April this stock was below $3 and what a climb! TSTC has a 3-month floor of $10 with support at $15 and now it is spiking into the $24 range.

TSTC is a short-sellers dream. TSTC only has 6.3 million shares in the public float and over 40% of those are owned by insiders. As a matter of fact, shares sold short as of 12-15-09 were 789.28k and shares short in the prior month were 469.40k. Nearly double. If the shares fall from this level and the short-selling buyers rush in to cover their positions (buy low; sell high) a ‘Big’ fall could occur.

What makes this possible isn’t valuation, but business. TSTC provides wireless communications coverage solutions in the People’s Republic of China and internationally. TSTC isn’t currently posting any large, top-line deals, but moving up because of ‘recognition’ given by media pundits who can’t seem to get over the astronomical figures TSTC posted for its Q3 at the end of September 2009.

With media observers saying things like: “Double Your Money” and “Shaking the Market” and similar enthusiasms for months (with no new deals officially posted by the company in the last 30 days), the Q3 numbers take the role of catalyst. For the Q3 period ending September 30, 2009 reported on November 17, TSTC posted a 124.7% revenue increase y-o-y, a net income increase of 281.8% y-o-y and an EPS of $0.41 vs. $0.11 y-o-y. For the nine months ended September 30, 2009, revenues increased 86.1% y-o-y, net income increased 96.8% and EPS were $0.71 versus $0.36 y-o-y. Wow.

tstc tstc1

TSTC 1-Year TSTC 3-Month

Gaining 5.21% this morning is Actuate Corporation (ACTU) http://www.actuate.com/ currently trading in the $4.84 range. ACTU has a 3-Month average daily trading volume of 239,053 shares. ACTU has a 52-week high of $6.18 with trailing twelve month revenues of $121 million and a corresponding diluted EPS of $0.26. Over 75% of ACTU public float is owned by institutions. ACTU has a 3-Month floor at $4 with good support at $4.50 and $5 and during the last year, the top-end support has been at $5.50-6. The ACTU November dip came on reporting total revenues –still on the plus side- dropping a bit from the sequential quarter. ACTU is a near-term (3 Mo) ‘Buy’ stock for me. There is probably technical resistance at the $6+ level, but I do believe more good news, like that of last weeks, can push the stock back into the $6 range; a $1.34 spread between the current and the high. That’s where the money could be made.

Last week, business software maker ACTU received an upgrade from ‘Hold’ to ‘Buy’ from Roth Capital Partners analyst Nathan Schneiderman. He noted in his research that the current low price makes it an attractive time to buy. I agree. He also said ACTU’s recent takeover of Xenos Group Inc., another software company, should help it turn around declining revenue. With providers and producers once again buying new and upgraded products post-recession, ACTU should be able to cross-sell Xenos products to its existing large financial-services customers, Schneiderman said.

ACTU software also serves: government, healthcare, manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, telecommunications, technology, utilities, automotive, education, entertainment, travel, and retail customers in North America, Europe, Asia Pacific and internationally.

actu actu1

ACTU 1-Year ACTU 3-Month

Gaining 5.56% this morning is 1-800-Flowers.com Inc., (FLWS) http://www.1800flowers.com/ currently trading in the $2.66 range. FLWS has a 3-Month average daily trading volume of 189,822 shares (very liquid) and is widely held by institutions. FLWS has a 52-week high of $4.88 set on 10-28-09 and trailing twelve month revenues of $686 million. FLWS has a 1-Year floor at $2 with thin support at $3 but in the last 3-Month period the support at $2.50 has strengthened and there have been spikes into that 52-week high range. If you are a buyer of seasonal and cyclical stocks, then considering the ‘recovery’ trends of consumer spending; this could certainly be a right price at a right time consideration. With Valentines, Easter and Mothers Day in the six month horizon, for a revenue perspective purchase of stock, FLWS would be a short-term (6 Mo) ‘Buy’ for me at its current price. I think 'new buyers' believe it’s undervalued at this price and even though FLWS suffered through the recession with some challenging numbers; the recession is over.

In its December 18 quarterly report, FLWS management said the Company fulfilled approximately 1,232,100 orders through its E-commerce sales channels (online and telephonic sales) during the three months ended September 27, 2009, a decrease of 10.5% over the prior year period, reflecting a continued decline in consumer spending, primarily within the FLWS category. The FLWS E-commerce average order value of $60.74 decreased 4.8% over the prior year period. But times are changing at last... send someone some flowers.

flws flws1

FLWS 1-Year FLWS 3-Month

No comments: