Monday, October 19, 2009

Key Market Reports and Commentary for Monday, October 19,

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Monday, October 19, 2009

1:00 AM ET. Oct NAHB Housing Index

Housing Market Index (previous 19)

The December NASDAQ 100 was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some
of last Friday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's
rally, weekly resistance crossing at 1783.71 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day
moving average crossing at 1714.70 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First
resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 1758.00. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing
at 1783.71. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1727.52. Second support is the
20-day moving average crossing at 1714.70. The December NASDAQ 100 was up 10.75 pts. at
1742.25 as of 5:58 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by December
NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.

The December S&P 500 index was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates above
broken resistance marked by September's high. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain
neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December
extends this month's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing at 1112.80
is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1059.29 would
signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at
1095.20. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing at
1112.80. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1072.21. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1059.29. The December S&P 500 Index was up 6.20 pts. at
1088.20 as of 6:01 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the December
S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

December T-bonds were lower overnight as it poised to extend last week's decline. Stochastics and
the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-
term. If December extends last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 118-07 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 120-26 are needed to
confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 120-15. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 120-26. First
support is last Thursday's low crossing at 118-20. Second support is the reaction low crossing at
118-07.

November crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of this
month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends this rally, weekly resistance
crossing at 79.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at
71.43 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high
crossing at 79.05. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 79.10. First support is the 10-
day moving average crossing at 74.07. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at
71.43.

November heating oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of this
month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off September's
low, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing at 241.23 is the next upside
target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 184.35 would confirm that a short-
term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 204.24. Second
resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing at 241.23. First support
is the 10-day moving average crossing at 191.24. Second support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 184.35.

November unleaded gas was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of last
week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off September's
low, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing at 201.32 is the next upside
target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 177.57 would confirm that a short-
term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 199.03. Second
resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing at 201.32. First support
is the 10-day moving average crossing at 184.17. Second support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 177.57.

November Henry natural gas was slightly lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates
some of last Friday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends last Friday's rally, this
month's high crossing at 5.120 then the 50% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at
5.320 are the next upside targets. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 4.351 are needed to
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at
4.880. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 5.120. First support is last Thursday's
low crossing at 4.355. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.351.

CURRENCIES

The December Dollar was lower overnight as it and is poised to renew last week's decline.
Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. If December extends last week's decline, monthly support crossing at 73.39 is
the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.54 are needed to
confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 76.11. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.54. First support
is last Thursday's low crossing at 75.40. Second support is monthly support crossing at 73.39.

The December Euro was higher overnight and is poised to extend this month's rally. Stochastics
and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices
are possible near-term. If December extends this month's rally, the 87% retracement level of the
2008-2009-decline crossing at 151.492 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 147.304 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First
resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 149.650. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level
of the 2008-2009-decline crossing at 151.492. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing
at 148.120. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 147.304.

The December British Pound was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of
last week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices
are possible near-term. If December extends last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 1.6742
is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.6027 are needed to
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at
1.6395. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.6742. First support is the 10-day
moving average crossing at 1.6027. Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 1.5702.

The December Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it extends the rally off the late-September low.
Stochastics and the RSI overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If December extends this rally, September's high crossing at .9920 is
the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at .9663 would confirm that a short-
term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at .9888. Second
resistance is September's high crossing at .9920. First support is the 10-day moving average
crossing at .9775. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .9734.

The December Canadian Dollar was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some
of last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that
a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 94.30
would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends this month's rally, the
2008 high crossing at 99.65 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high
crossing at 97.98. Second resistance is the 2008 high crossing at 99.65. First support is the 10-day
moving average crossing at 95.96. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 94.30.

The December Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher due to short covering overnight as it
consolidates some of last week's decline but remains below the 20-day moving average.
Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If
December extends last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at .10812 is the next downside
target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at .11150 are needed to confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .11120.
Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at .11150. First support is last Friday's
low crossing at .10953. Second support is the reaction low crossing at .10812.

PRECIOUS METALS

December gold was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of last
Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a
short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1028.70
are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends this month's rally
into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last Wednesday's
high crossing at 1072.00. First support is last Friday's decline crossing at 1043.70. Second
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1028.70.

December silver was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of last week's
decline but remains below the 10-day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish
hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average
crossing at 17.042 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews this
month's rally, the 75% retracement level of 2008's decline crossing at 18.180 on the weekly
continuation chart is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at
18.175. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of 2008's decline crossing at 18.180. First
support is last Friday's low crossing at 17.210. Second support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 17.042.

December copper was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two weeks.
Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes
below last Tuesday's low crossing at 275.60 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If
December renews last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 295.50 is the next upside target.
Closes above the reaction high crossing at 298.95 or below 266.00 are needed to confirm a
breakout of the current trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First
resistance is the reaction high crossing at 290.10. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at
295.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 279.54. Second support is last
Tuesday's low crossing at 275.60.

FOOD & FIBER

December coffee closed sharply higher on Friday and above August's high crossing at 14.17. The high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's rally, June's high crossing at 14.64 is the
next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.36 would confirm that a short-term top has been
posted.

December cocoa closed higher on Friday as it extends yesterday's breakout above the 10-day moving average. The high-range
close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off August's low, weekly resistance crossing at
34.35 is the next upside target. Closes below last Monday's low crossing at 29.67 would confirm that a short-term top has been
posted.

March sugar closed higher on Friday as it extends yesterday's rally above the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.44. The
mid-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling
that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 25.43 is
the next upside target.

December cotton closed higher on Friday and posted a new high close for the near. The high-range close sets the stage for a
steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2008-
decline crossing at 73.41 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 63.72 would confirm
that a short-term top has been posted.
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GRAINS

December corn was higher overnight as it consolidated some of last week's decline. The high-range
close overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a pullback to test
support marked by the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.53 3/4 is possible. Closes below the
20-day moving average crossing at 3.53 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
If December extends the rally off September's low, the 62% retracement level of this summer's
decline crossing at 4.07 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high
crossing at 3.88 3/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of this summer's decline
crossing at 4.07 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.71. Second support
is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.53 3/4.

December wheat was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of last week's
decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session
begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish
hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average
crossing at 4.71 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December
extends last week's rally, the 38% retracement level of this summer's decline crossing at 5.48 1/2
is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 5.29. Second
resistance is the 38% retracement level of this summer's decline crossing at 5.48 1/2. First support
is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.89 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 4.71 1/2.

December Kansas City Wheat closed down 7 1/2-cents at 5.10 1/2.

December Kansas City Wheat closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidates some
of this week's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might
be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.84 1/2 would confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. If December renews this month's rally, the 38% retracement level
of this summer's decline crossing at 5.70 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is
Wednesday's high crossing at 5.41 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at
5.70 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.98. Second support is the 20-
day moving average crossing at 4.84 1/2.

December Minneapolis wheat was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of
last week's setback. The high-range overnight close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening
when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are
turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day
moving average crossing at 5.03 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If
December extends last week's rally, the 25% retracement level of this summer's decline crossing at
5.60 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 5.54 1/4.
Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of this summer's decline crossing at 5.60 3/4. First
support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.19 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 5.03 3/4.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX

November soybeans were higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of last
week's setback. The high-range overnight close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when
the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning
bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 9.39 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If November
extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 10.18 3/4 is the next upside target. First
resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 10.12 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high
crossing at 10.18 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.65 3/4. Second
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.39 3/4.

December soybean meal was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of last
week's decline. The high-range close overnight set the stage for a steady to higher opening when
the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish
hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average
crossing at 287.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December
renews this month's rally, August's high crossing at 320.00 is the next upside target. First
resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 311.40. Second resistance is August's high crossing at
320.00. First support is the overnight low crossing at 291.60. Second support is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 287.50.

December soybean oil was higher overnight as it extends this month's rally. The high-range close
sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins later this morning.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that additional gains
are still possible near-term. If December extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at
37.94 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 35.02 would
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at
37.25. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 37.94. First support is the 10-day moving
average crossing at 35.77. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 35.02.

LIVESTOCK

December hogs closed down $0.38 at $54.10.

December hogs closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidated some of this month's rally. The high-range close
sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's rally, the 25% retracement
level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing at 55.69 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at
50.92 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 54.75. Second
resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing at 55.69. First support is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 52.51. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 50.92.

February bellies closed down $0.40 at $81.85.

February bellies closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidated some of last week's rally. A short covering rally
tempered early session losses and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and
the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last Wednesday's gap
crossing at 80.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February renews this month's rally, September's high
crossing at 89.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 85.20. Second resistance is
September's high crossing at 89.40. First support is last Wednesday's gap crossing at 80.70. Second support is today's low
crossing at 79.25.

December cattle closed up $0.15 at 85.80.

December cattle closed higher on Monday as it extends this week's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to
higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-
term. If December extends the rally off last week's low, the reaction high crossing at 86.15 is the next upside target. Closes
below the 10-day moving average crossing at 84.78 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance
is today's high crossing at 85.90. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 86.15. First support is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 84.98. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 84.78.

November feeder cattle closed up $0.52 at $95.12.

November Feeder cattle closed higher on Friday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.08. The high-range close
sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish hinting that a short-term low might
be in or is near. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.08 are needed to confirm that a short-term low
has been posted. If November renews this year's decline, the 87% retracement level of the 2008-2009-rally crossing at 91.11 is
the next downside target.


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