Walgreen Co. (WAG) Dividend Stock Analysis

Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of Walgreen Co. (WAG). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:

Company Description: Walgreen Co. is the largest U.S. retail drug chain in terms of revenues, this company operates more than 8,000 drug stores throughout the U.S. and Puerto Rico.

Fair Value: In calculating fair value, I consider the NPV MMA Differential Fair Value along with these four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Avg. High Yield Price
2. 20-Year DCF Price
3. Avg. P/E Price
4. Graham Number

WAG is trading at a discount to only 1.) above. The stock is trading at a slight discount to its calculated fair value of $42.98. WAG earned a Star in this section since it is trading at a fair value.

Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Free Cash Flow Payout
2. Debt To Total Capital
3. Key Metrics
4. Dividend Growth Rate
5. Years of Div. Growth
6. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%

WAG earned two Stars in this section for 2.) and 3.) above. The stock earned a Star as a result of its most recent Debt to Total Capital being less than 45%. WAG earned a Star for having an acceptable score in at least two of the four Key Metrics measured. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15% means that dividends grew on average in excess of 15% for each consecutive 4 year period over the last 10 years (2001-2004, 2002-2005, 2003-2006, etc.) I consider this a key metric since dividends will double every 5 years if they grow by 15%. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1933 and has increased its dividend payments for 36 consecutive years.

Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA)? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. NPV MMA Diff.
2. Years to > MMA

WAG earned a Star in this section for its NPV MMA Diff. of the $4,080. This amount is in excess of the $500 target I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as WAG has. If WAG grows its dividend at 18.5% per year, it will take 6 years to equal a MMA yielding an estimated 20-year average rate of 3.9%.

Memberships and Peers: WAG is a member of the S&P 500, a Dividend Aristocrat and a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index and a Dividend Champion. The company’s peer group includes: CVS Caremark Corporation (CVS) with a 1.5% yield,Rite Aid Corp. (RAD) with a 0.0% yield and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) with a 2.8% yield.

Conclusion: WAG earned one Star in the Fair Value section, earned two Stars in the Dividend Analytical Data section and earned one Star in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of four Stars. This quantitatively ranks WAG as a 4 Star-Buy.

Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price would need to increase to $85.71 before WAG’s NPV MMA Differential decreased to the $500 minimum that I look for in a stock with 36 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 0.82%.

Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $500 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 12.1%. This dividend growth rate is well below the 18.5% used in this analysis, thus providing a margin of safety. WAG has a risk rating of 1.00 which classifies it as a Low risk stock.

With over 7,700 drugstores, WAG offers unmatched convenience with one of the the most recognized brand names in the retail pharmacy business. The company enjoys a strong market share within the relatively stable U.S. retail drug industry. However, pressures from non-traditional competitors and potential adverse legislation could quickly weaken WAG’s advantages. Although the stock is trading slightly below my $42.98 fair value price, the 1.7% dividend yield will prevent any near–term purchases. For additional information, including the stock’s dividend history, please refer to its data page..