Saturday, April 16, 2011

INTEREST RATES


June T-bonds closed up 1-04/32's at 120-26.


June T-bonds closed higher on Friday and above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 120-01 confirming that a low has been posted. The high-range close
sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the
RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible
near-term. If June extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at
120-31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average
crossing at 119-15 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First
resistance is the reaction high crossing at 120-31. Second resistance is the
reaction high crossing at 122-08. First support is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 119-15. Second support is last Friday's low crossing at 117-28.



ENERGY MARKETS


May crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it
consolidates some of the decline off Monday's high. The high-range close sets
the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are
neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 107.09 would
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off
March's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing at
121.09 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at
113.46. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline
crossing at 121.09. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 105.31. Second
support is the reaction low crossing at 102.70.


May heating oil closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it
consolidates some of the decline off last Friday's high. The high-range close
sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the
RSI remain neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is
near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 314.46 are needed to
confirm that a top has been posted. If May renews this winter's rally, weekly
resistance crossing at 335.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is
last Friday's high crossing at 333.00. Second resistance is weekly resistance
crossing at 335.10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at
314.46. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 301.83.


May unleaded gas closed higher on Friday renewing this year's rally. The
high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday.
Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off
last August's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing
at 344.12 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average
crossing at 313.37 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
First resistance is today's high crossing at 329.65. Second resistance is the
87% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing at 344.12. First
support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 321.44. Second support is the
20-day moving average crossing at 313.42.


May Henry natural gas posted an inside day with a lower close on Friday as
it consolidates some of this week's short covering rally. The mid-range close
sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes
above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.257 are needed to confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. If May renews the decline off March's high, the
87% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 3.899 is the next downside
target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.257. Second
resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.442. First support is Monday's
low crossing at 3.990. Second support is the 87% retracement level of March's
rally crossing at 3.899. 

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