Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Daily outlook on Bullion, Metals and Energy

BULLION 
Gold and silver prices were trading with losses initially during the day as rising stock markets and better investor sentiment kept precious metals out of the investment purview. 

However, the yellow metal reversed its earlier losses and retrieved lost grounds later during Tuesday as stock markets fell following weaker than expected US economic data. Data showed that consumer confidence of US, the largest economy, slid more than expected, which gave rise to doubts attributed to the economic recovery. 

Weakness in the stock markets and sour investor sentiment improved the appeal of the yellow metal as a safe haven. Concerns also sparked across Asia as the Conference Board of China decided upon a downward revision of the Leading Economic Index. 

The idea of weakness creeping into the Chinese economy was too much for the stock markets and it fell, taking the commodities market along as well. Nevertheless, the situation proved to be favorable for prices of gold and silver as it recovered and ended with gains on Tuesday. 

The most actively traded gold contract, for August delivery, recently was down $3.40, or 0.3%, at $1,235.20 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. 

The investment demand for gold has also reached fresh highs. The world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust (GLD.P) said its holdings rose to a record 1,320.436 metric tons by June 29 from 1,316.177 metric tons on June 24. 

ENERGY Crude oil prices were also hit hard from the weakness that gripped the markets on Tuesday. The weaker than expected US data, Chinese downgraded growth forecasts and rising inventories put enough pressure on prices of crude oil yesterday. 

Crude-oil futures for August delivery fell $2.31, or 3%, to $75.94 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. There was also news that storm named Alex had moved farther away from the US Gulf of Mexico, where oil production facilities are situated. 

Natural gas prices extended its losses from the earlier during the week following intense weakness in the stock markets and due to declining storm threats. Natural gas for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled 18.5 cents, or 3.91%, lower at $4.548 a million British thermal units after reaching a low of $4.525/MMBtu earlier in the day. Gas futures were also pressured lower by indications that Tropical Storm Alex would steer clear of U.S. gas pipelines and platforms in the Gulf. 

The storm was expected to come ashore in northern Mexico or southern Texas as a Category 2 hurricane, with maximum winds between 74 and 95 miles per hour. The stocks of natural gas still remain at record levels. In its monthly natural-gas report released Tuesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said total U.S. marketed gas output in April came in at 1.86 trillion cubic feet, down 3.6% from 1.93 trillion cubic feet in March. 

BASE METALS 
Base metals prices were also hit and hit heavily as a combination of strong US dollar, falling equity markets and downgrading growth forecasts of China, the largest consumer of base metals, pulled prices down. 

The Conference Board of China went with a downward revision of the country’s Leading Economic Index. After adjustments, the LEI for China grew only 0.3% in April, following a 1.2% increase in March and a 0.4% increase in February. 

Data also showed that consumer confidence of US, the second largest consumer of copper, fell towards 52.9 from 62.7 during the month of May. The expectations were for the figures to remain to 62. 



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