Friday, July 23, 2010

Marriott Upgraded To Outperform (BUY)

Marriott International Inc. (MAR: 32.04 0.00 0.00%), a leading worldwide hospitality company primarily focusing on property management and franchising, to Outperform from Neutral.

The rating upgrade is based on second quarter 2010 earnings, which were well ahead of the Zacks Consensus Estimate, primarily driven by higher-than-expected RevPAR growth particularly in North America. Additionally, Marriott is experiencing an increase in demand with a gradual recovery of the global economy. Business travelers are returning, with leisure demand increasing as well. Marriott also raised its fiscal year 2010 outlook.

We are also encouraged by the company’s strong pipeline, significant international exposure, solid balance sheet, lower operating cost structure, favorable pricing and increased market share.

Second Quarter Results Ahead of Estimates


Marriott’s second quarter earnings of 31 cents per share was ahead of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 28 cents per share. Earnings was also well above the company’s guidance of 25 cents to 29 cents per share and recorded a substantial increase of 35% year over year.


The results were driven by higher-than-expected growth in revenue per available room (RevPAR) particularly in North America, which were up for the first time in nearly two years and the turnaround in business travel and leisure demand remained solid.

Total revenues aggregated $2.8 billion, up 7.7% year over year. RevPAR for worldwide comparable company-operated properties grew 9.9% (up 8.2% on a constant-dollar basis), while that for worldwide comparable systemwide properties rose 8.5% (up 7% on a constant-dollar basis).

Worldwide comparable company-operated house profit margins were up 90 basis points, driven by higher occupancy, slight rate increases and strong productivity.

Outlook for 2010


For the third quarter, Marriott expects earnings in a range of 18 cents to 22 cents per share on total fee revenue projection of $245 million to $255 million. Comparable system-wide RevPAR on a constant dollar basis is expected to increase 5% to 7% in North America and 7% to 9% outside North America.

For full-year 2010, Marriott raised its earnings guidance from the range of 95 cents to $1.05 per share to the range of $1.05 to $1.13 per share. Marriott also increased the lower end of its total fee revenue projection to $1.16 billion - $1.18 billion from $1.15 billion - $1.18 billion. Comparable system-wide RevPAR on a constant dollar basis is estimated to be up 4% to 6% (from 3% to 6%) in North America and 6% to 8% (from 4% to 7%) outside North America.

Overall Summary: 35%, Bullish
 65%, Bearish
    Trade Quality: Upside  45%, Poor
Downside  85%, V. Good



 Analysts' Targets
 Barclays Capital$39 
    Overweight
    Friday, July 16, 2010
 Longbow$40 
    Buy
    Friday, July 16, 2010
 Deutsche Bank Securities$30 
    Neutral
    Wednesday, July 14, 2010
 Caris & Company$39 
    Buy
    Thursday, July 01, 2010
 Brean Murray & Co.$38 
    Mkt Perform
    Friday, April 23, 2010
 J.P. Morgan Securities$36 
    Buy
    Thursday, March 25, 2010
 Oppenheimer & Co. Inc.$25 
    Perform
    Friday, February 12, 2010

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