Over the last half decade, two tech giants have learned to accommodate each other. Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) became the darling of consumers everywhere with its iPod, iPhone, and iPad. And Research in Motion (Nasdaq: RIMM) held a tight grip on the smartphone market for business users with its line of Blackberries.RIMM has managed to retain a strong following, even in the face of repeated forays by rivals into its market. Corporate IT managers have been a loyal bunch. Surveys find that they have repeatedly tried out other vendors' offerings, but choose to renew contracts to have their staffs’ phone calls and e-mails routed through RIMM’s Blackberry servers.
But some are wondering if that iron grip is about to loosen. Right at a time when RIMM was said to be developing a tablet computer to come up with an iPad for the corporate set, Cisco Systems (Nasdaq:CSCO) appeared out of nowhere. The tech giant, which has been slowly expanding beyond its telecom roots, will introduce its first computer-like offering, a table computer known as Cius, next winter. And rather than go after Apple’s turf, Cisco is aiming at the corporate market. The company believes that incorporating high-definition video-conferencing into such a tablet-like device will be a game-changer.
Cisco’s announcement this week creates more questions than answers:
- Will corporate customers clamor for a tablet-like device? After all, they are often tethered to their desks, whereas consumers like the fact that the iPad can be brought to the beach or coffee shop.
- Is Cisco looking to develop a Blackberry-like server model that handles voice and e-mail traffic? The company has yet to announce plans in that area.
- If RIMM comes out with a similarly robust offering, will IT managers still be willing to dump their legacy investments in Blackberry hardware and service to switch to Cisco, which is unproven in this area?
- Do corporate users feel the need to be able to hold video conferences any time, any where? Perhaps a small niche, but hardly the vast hordes that Cisco may be envisioning.
Clearly, Cisco faces an uphill battle to dethrone RIMM. But it will have one big factor in its favor: Apps. By relying on Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) Android operating software (OS), Cisco’s Cius will have the support of thousands of applications, an area in which RIMM has been unable to muster as much interest as it had hoped. These apps are what made the iPhone and the iPad such a success, and as more tech firms throw their weight behind Android, the same thing is likely to happen for Cisco and other partners that use the OS as well.Equally important, the Cius probably represents just an initial foray into RIMM’s turf. Cisco has a history of slowly entering new markets, and then expanding its product lines as time passes. And Apple shouldn’t think it has nothing to worry about. Cisco is increasingly moving into the consumer space with cable set-top boxes, wireless modem hubs, the Flip video camera and other devices. Can a Cius-like device aimed at consumers be far behind?
In truth, RIMM has less to worry about that it first appears. But perception is reality, and analysts are talking up Cisco as a new rival. Goldman Sachs analysts wrote Tuesday that they see the announcement as "an incremental threat to RIM.” Media reports also seem to set RIMM in the bull’s eye. And as long as RIMM is seen as being threatened, shares will fail to rebound. It may take a number of quarters for the company to once again beat back its detractors. So even though shares are ultra-cheap, at less than nine times fiscal (February) 2011 projected profits, they are likely to stay that way the rest of the year.
Action to Take --> Cisco had the bad fortune to announce the Cius on a day when the market collapsed, pushing its own shares down more than -3%.They’ve now fallen more than -20% since early May in sympathy with the broader market. And even though Cius may not be a threat to RIMM, it is a clear threat to its traditional telecom rivals such as Juniper Networks (Nasdaq: JNPR) or Polycom (Nasdaq: PLCM). These companies can no longer keep up with Cisco in terms of an end-to-end corporate communications solution, from the routers that handle data traffic to the desktop IP phones that sit on many corporate desks. If you back out Cisco’s hefty $24 billion net cash position, its shares also trade for less than 10 times projected profits.
Both RIMM and Cisco should benefit from the ever-expanding reach of technology, but Cisco can count on a more positive view from analysts and the financial media in coming quarters, making it the safer play.
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