The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=indexesThe September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight and spiked below May's low crossing at 1730.75 as it extends this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If September extends this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of the 2009-2010-rally crossing at 1652.26 is the next downside target. Close above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1836.82 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1832.10. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1836.82. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1720.50. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2009-2010-rally crossing at 1652.26. The September NASDAQ 100 was down 3.50 pts. at 1734.50 as of 5:47 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by September NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.
The September S&P 500 index was lower overnight as it extends this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010-rally crossing at 1002.53 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1074.75 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1070.22. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1074.75. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1016.00. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010-rally crossing at 1002.53. The September S&P 500 Index was down 1.10 pts. at 1025.50 as of 5:49 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the September S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=interestSeptember T-bonds were slightly higher overnight as it extends this year's rally in the face of continued weakness in the equity markets and concerns over the economy. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 130-10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 124-23 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 128-03. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 130-10. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 125-21. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 124-23
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=energyAugust crude oil was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 75.17 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a larger-degree decline into early-July. If August renews the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 82.67 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 77.10. Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 79.38. First support is the overnight low crossing at 74.21. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 70.93.
August heating oil was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline below the 20-day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If August extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 194.20. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 213.96 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 206.93. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 209.08. First support is the overnight low crossing at 198.11. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 194.20.
August unleaded gas was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 205.26 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a larger-degree decline into early-July. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 216.25 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 208.11. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 210.25. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 201.78. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 195.68.
August Henry natural gas was lower overnight and remains poised to extend this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 4.285 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.864 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.778. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.864. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 4.477. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.285.
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CURRENCIESThe September Dollar was lower overnight but remains above the 25% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 85.71. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging and are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 86.84 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 86.71. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 86.84. First support is last Monday's low crossing at 85.36. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83.
The September Euro was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates above the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.238. At the same time stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.238 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If September resumes this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 126.840 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 124.770. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 124.840. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 121.570. Second support is this month's low crossing at 118.840.
The September British Pound was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4783 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off May's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing at 1.5287 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1.5130. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing at 1.5287. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.4873. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4783.
The September Swiss Franc was higher overnight and is trading above the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing at .9307 as it extends this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible near-term. If September extends this month's rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing at .9483 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .8958 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at .9379. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing at .9483. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at .9153. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .8958.
The September Canadian Dollar was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If September extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 93.57 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.13 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 96.07. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.13. First support is the overnight low crossing at 93.61. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 93.57.
The September Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it extends this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's rally, May's high crossing at .11381 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .11072 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at .11368. Second resistance is May's high crossing at .11381. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at .11180. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .11072.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=metalsAugust gold was lower overnight hinting that the two-day correction of Monday's decline might be coming to an end. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 1225.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August renews the rally off the late-May low, upside targets will be hard to project with August trading in uncharted territory. First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 1266.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1238.50. Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 1225.20.
July silver was lower overnight but remains above the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.535. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 18.170 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted and would then open the door for a possible test of this month's low crossing at 17.195. If July renews this month's rally, May's high crossing at 19.845 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 19.460. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 19.845. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.535. Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 18.310.
July copper was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 284.45 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 310.60 are needed to renew this month's rally. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 296.75. Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 310.60. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 285.75. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 284.45.
FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=foodJuly coffee closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below 20-day moving average crossing at 15.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends this month's rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing at 18.18 is the next upside target.
July cocoa gapped down and closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it extended Tuesday's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's decline, May's low crossing at 27.67 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 29.94 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.
July sugar closed higher on Wednesday as it extends this month's rally. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.97 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If July extends this month's rally, the 50% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 19.02 is the next upside target.
July cotton closed lower on Wednesday following today's USDA planted acreage and stocks report. The USDA indicated that producers planted 10.9 million acres of cotton, which was up 19% from last year. Today's close below the 10-day moving average crossing at 83.16 signals that a short-term top might be in or is near. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are still possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends this month's rally, April's high crossing at 87.10 is the next upside target.
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GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grainsJuly corn was higher overnight as it extends Wednesday's rally following yesterday's bullish acreage and quarterly gain stocks report. Wednesday's close above the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.46 3/4 confirms that a short-term low has been posted. However, it will take closes above this month's high crossing at 3.67 1/4 to confirm that a significant change in trend has taken place. The low planted acreage along with better than expected demand for corn is a game changer and will require a near perfect growing season from here on out into harvest. The market no longer has the cushion of excess supply to fall back on. The high-range close overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish with yesterday's huge rally signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's rally, this month's high crossing at 3.67 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the
early-June low crossing at 3.35 would confirm that bears still retain control of the market. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 3.58. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 3.67 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.46 1/2. Second support is Tuesday's low crossing at 3.24 1/2.
July wheat was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates above the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.58 3/4. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Wednesday's high crossing at 4.77 1/4 are needed to signal that a trend change is taking place. If July renews the early-week decline, this month's low crossing at 4.25 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 4.77 1/4. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 5.17. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.40. Second support is this month's low crossing at 4.25 1/4.
July Kansas City Wheat closed up 17 3/4-cents at 4.86.
July Kansas City wheat gapped up and closed above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.79 1/2 on Wednesday leaving a one-day island bottom on the daily chart. Profit taking tempered early-session gains and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends today's rally, this month's high crossing at 5.07 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 4.69 would open the door for a possible test of this month's low crossing at 4.55 1/4. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4.94. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 5.07 1/2. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.69. Second support is this month's low crossing at 4.55 1/4.
July Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as yesterday's bearish quarterly gain stocks report continues to weigh on prices. The low-range overnight close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If July extends this week's decline, this month's low crossing at 4.84 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.18 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.12 1/2. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.18 1/2. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.91 3/4. Second support is this month's low crossing at 4.84 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEXJuly soybeans were higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last week's high. Yesterday's acreage report was termed bearish although I don't believe the USDA has factored in all of the unplanted and drowned out soybean acres. The quarterly grain stocks report came in at 571 million bushels, which was 4% lower than the previous report and reflects continued strong export demand. The mid-range overnight close sets the stage for a steady opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's decline, this month's low crossing at 9.26 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.56 1/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.56 1/4. Second resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 9.73. First support is Wednes
day's low crossing at 9.45. Second support is this month's low crossing at 9.26.
July soybean meal was higher overnight as it extends this month's trading range. The high-range close overnight set the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 287.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 308.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 299.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 308.40. First support is Monday's low crossing at 287.10. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 287.00.
July soybean oil was lower overnight as it consolidates above the 75% retracement level of the 2009-2010-rally crossing at 35.92. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends last week's decline, the 87% retracement level of the 2009-2010-rally crossing at 34.79 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 37.13 would temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 37.10. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 37.13. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 35.86. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2009-2010-rally crossing at 34.79.
LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/category.html?c=livestockJuly hogs closed up $0.48 at $79.23.
July hogs closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday and filled yesterday's gap crossing at 79.40. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's decline, this month's low crossing at 77.58 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 81.05 would temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 79.90. Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 81.05. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 78.30. Second support is this month's low crossing at 77.58.
July bellies closed down $1.70 at $99.50.
July bellies closed lower on Wednesday due to profit taking but the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's rally, gap resistance crossing at 101.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.64 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 101.50. Second resistance is gap resistance crossing at 101.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.64. Second support is last Thursday's low crossing at 97.40.
August cattle closed up $1.28 at 90.03.
August cattle gapped up and closed above the 10-day moving average crossing at 89.04 on Wednesday as it renewed this month's corrective rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off this month's low, the reaction high crossing at 91.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 88.66 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 90.50. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 91.00. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 87.90. Second support is this month's low crossing at 87.20.
August feeder cattle closed up $0.18 at $113.05.
August Feeder cattle closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that additional short-term gains are still possible. If August extends the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the April-May decline crossing at 115.15 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.96 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 114.20. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-May decline crossing at 115.15. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 112.15. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.96.
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