Tuesday, July 6, 2010

Crude Oil Awaits Guidance, Gold Is Lower After Breaking Down

Crude oil will look to this week’s economic data points for guidance on near-term price direction. First on deck is the ISM Services Index set to be released early on Tuesday. Gold is drifting lower after decisively breaking lower late last week.
Commodities - Energy
Crude Oil Awaits Guidance
Crude Oil (WTI)        $71.44       -$0.70        -0.97%
Crude oil is starting the new week on a down note as economic worries continue to dictate near-term price direction. Last week oil lost an enormous 8.6% after double dip fears really started to gain traction amid dismal economic reports out of the U.S. Equally disappointing figures in Europe and China did not help matters and now traders are on pins and needles awaiting this week’s readings, as they try to gauge the health of the global economic recovery. Further evidence of a slowdown or worse will likely send crude oil plummeting further, while positive readings could lead to stabilization or even a rally. On Tuesday, the ISM will release their services index. A reading of 55 is expected for the month of June, down from 55.4 in the prior month. With regard to technicals, look for support near the key $69.50 level, while resistance lies at $75.50.

Commodities - Metals
Gold is Lower After Breaking Down
Gold      $1205.55       -$3.72        -0.31%
Gold lost $53 peak-to-trough in a single session last week, leading to a break of a steep upward trendline that had supported the commodity since March. Now that a near-term top has been put in so decisively, short-term traders will be looking to sell the rallies rather than buy the dips. Gold still remains elevated compared to other risk assets that have sold off much harder from their highs of the year. Look for a push toward $1166 horizontal support.
Silver      $17.74        -$0.08       -0.45%
Silver continues to drop following last week’s slaughter. Prices are now nearing a significant horizontal support area that has bolstered the metal since April. This support area extends from $17.06 to $17.75. A break of said support would likely lead to a steep fall toward the mid-$16’s.

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