Wednesday, June 2, 2010

Commodities Round up- Commodities: Oil loses nearly 2% on demand woes

Date: Wednesday 02 Jun 2010

Crude oil futures settled 1.9% lower on Tuesday as US stocks pulled back and fears about Europe’s debt and a slowdown in China’s growth hurt market confidence.

Light crude oil for July delivery fell $1.39 to $72.58 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Concern about a slowdown in global demand chipped away at oil futures, in a volatile session, overshadowing a string of upbeat US economic reports.

Oil prices started the session lower as traders worried about weaker than anticipated data on Chinese manufacturing. China’s Purchasing Managers’ index fell to 53.9 in May from 55.7 in April.

Data from the US showed improvements in manufacturing and a 2.7% increase in US construction spending during April, the largest increase for nearly six years.

Focus was also on BP as its share price plunged 15% on concern about failed attempts to plug its leaking oil well.

Among precious metals gold continued its winning streak as it benefited from safe haven buying. China’s slower than expected manufacturing data, the weaker euro and concerns over euro-zone debt problems played on investor confidence.

Comex gold for August delivery rose $11.90 to settle at $1,226.90 an ounce.

NamePrice1 Day Change1 Day % ChangeUnits
Gold$1,227.75+$20.25+1.68%$/troy oz
Silver$18.30-$0.23-1.24%$/troy oz
Cattle144.73p0.000p0.00%p/kg
Pigs145.46p0.000p0.00%p/kg
Lamb198.90p0.000p0.00%p/kg
Brent Crude$73.63-$0.75-1.01%$/barrel
Krugerrand$1,274.40+$19.30+1.54%$/troy oz
Palladium$457.00-$14.00-2.97%$/troy oz
Platinum$1,550.00-$5.00-0.32%$/troy oz

Currencies Round up- Euro remains weak across the board

Date: Wednesday 02 Jun 2010

In a normal market yesterday’s positive US construction spending figures for April which showed an increase of 2.7%, the biggest rise in 10 years, should have been enough to allay investor concerns about economic recovery in the world’s largest economy.

However these are not normal markets and with continuing fears about problems in the banking sector in Europe, tensions in the Middle East and a possible slow down in China not helping, sentiment remains fragile and risk aversion remains the favoured play with the Euro hitting fresh 4 year lows against the US dollar.

The latest financial stability report from the European Central Bank has warned of further bank write downs of up to €195bn in the next 18 months, as European banks continue to wrestle with their exposure to sovereign losses.

The single currency was further hit by a weekend report by the London based Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), which suggested that the only way for Greece to escape its current debt problems would be to leave the Euro. The CEBR suggests that this move is all but inevitable, and that French and German banks would be hardest hit.

Economic data didn’t provide any respite either with EU unemployment increasing to 10.1%, and German retail sales for April declining year on year by 3.1% against an forecasted decline of 0.7%.

The pound’s fortunes have been somewhat better over the past 24 hours with UK manufacturing reaching its highest level since September 1994, posting eight successive monthly gains driven by near record export orders to China, Europe, the Middle East and the US. These figures helped push the pound to near one month highs against a basket of currencies.

Political instability in Japan will weigh a little on the yen after last nights resignation of Japanese Prime Minister Hatoyama as the tripartite coalition looks for a successor.

EURUSD – another 4 year low against the US dollar at 1.2112 yesterday, however the lack of follow through again prompted another rally, this time towards the channel line resistance at 1.2360, which has so far been rebuffed. The markets appear to be somewhat nervous about possible central bank intervention, each marginal new low being followed by a sharp rally.
The 1.2135 level remains the proverbial line in the sand, and we need a daily close below here to set off a move towards the 1.1700 level, and 2005 lows.
For now this key 50% Fibonacci level has kept the declines at bay, but with rallies becoming shallower the risk still remains for an eventual break.
The Euro needs to see a break above the 1.2450/60 level for a move towards 1.2700 to unfold.

GBPUSD – the pound continues to benefit from increasingly positive economic data. Yesterdays early slip towards trend line support 1.4440/50 provoked the rally we were looking for and the move towards the 1.4780 level. While we stay above trend line support which is now at 1.4480, the odds continue to favour a test higher toward the 1.4780 level, and possibly even 1.4850.
Key support level remains around the 1.4230/50 level and remains the key barrier to any further sterling declines in the short term. The 1.4000 level remains a key support on a monthly close.

EURGBP – the positive sterling data and negative Euro data pushed the Euro below the key 0.8400 2 year lows yesterday. Now that the single currency has closed below this key level further Euro losses look extremely likely. The next target remains the 0.8250 level on the way towards the 0.8170 level.
The 0.8170 level is a 50% retracement of the up move from the 2007 lows at 0.6537 to the 2008 highs at 0.9801.

USDJPY – the yen continues to chop between the support around 90.70/80 area and the recent highs around 91.75. The importance of the 200 day moving average is currently being neutralised by the current choppiness, but while the currency pair stays above its trend line support currently at 89.80, the potential for a higher US dollar remains. The recent political instability is likely to weigh a little on the yen as well.
The 92.80 level remains the next target while above 89.80 and the recent range support around the 90.70/80 area.


GBPAUDCADJPYEURCHFUSD
GBP1.00001.77611.5530134.77581.20761.70691.4742
AUD0.56301.00000.874475.88400.67990.96100.8300
CAD0.64391.14371.000086.78640.77761.09910.9493
JPY0.00740.01320.01151.00000.00900.01270.0109
EUR0.82811.47081.2860111.60971.00001.41351.2208
CHF0.58591.04050.909878.96100.70751.00000.8637
USD0.67831.20481.053491.42500.81911.15791.0000

LONDON Pre-Market Report

Date: Wednesday 02 Jun 2010



London open

City sources predict FTSE 100 will open down 63 points from yesterday's close of 5,163.

Stocks to watch

Prudential was this morning facing calls for a clear-out of its senior management after it scrapped it contentious plans to buy AIG's Asian arm (AIA). In a statement, chairman Harvey McGrath said the Pru took the decision to withdraw after failing to negotiate a cut in the $35.5bn purchase price for AIA. The Pru's $21bn right issue to finance the deal will now also be scrapped.

Scottish soft drinks maker
AG Barr said it has made a good start to the year, thanks to strong performances by its Irn Bru and Rubicon brands. Total revenue for the period from 31 January to 29 May on a like for like basis increased by 17.9% compared with last year. Overall operating margins continue to be in line with expectations, the group added.

Water company
Northumbrian Water has pumped up full-year profits by 11.5% and says it will not need to raise any new debt before the end of 2011. Profit before tax for the year ended 31 March increased to Ł170.2m from Ł152.7m on revenue up 1.5% to Ł704.7m, mainly due to the uplift in tariffs to support ongoing high capital investment.

Barclays said its TAV unit has made a recommended cash offer to buy Stockholm-listed carbon developer Tricorona for about Ł98m. The deal, which is expected to complete in the third quarter of 2010, would be accretive to Barclays earnings within one year from completion.

In the Press

BP’s long-term credibility was at stake last night as its chief executive fought to halt a headlong slide in its stock price and the Obama Administration announced a criminal investigation into the Deepwater Horizon oil disaster. After losing a third of its value in six weeks, BP is expected to promise shareholders this week that their annual dividend — more than $10bn last year — will be maintained. Eric Holder, the US Attorney-General, announced a criminal and civil investigation, to be conducted by the FBI and other federal agencies, after meeting local officials in New Orleans, the Times reports.

Activity at British factories increased at the fastest rate in more than 15 years in May, matching April’s rate of growth, but the data was clouded by fears over inflationary pressures. The Purchasing Managers’ Index of activity at British manufacturers remained at 58 in May, the highest since September 1994. It has been above the 50-mark, which indicates that activity is rising rather than falling, for eight months as manufacturers take advantage of the weak pound to boost exports, the Times reports.

The European Union could seize control of green taxes across the continent in order to make low-carbon energy cheaper. Biofuels and wind or wave power would become less costly than energy produced from fossil fuels, under draft plans obtained by Reuters, reports the Telegraph.

Newspaper tips

National Grid has reiterated its target of growing dividends by 8% a year at least until 2012. Based on an adjusted post-rights price, it is now trading on ten times next year’s earnings and yielding more than 7%. On that basis, National Grid remains attractive. Buy says the Times.

Whitbread's stock has fallen back recently, partly because of profit-taking by investors, since hitting a 12-month high of Ł16.31 on 26 April. The shares now trade on a 2011 forecast multiple of 13, which is a significant discount to rivals. While Whitbread could be hit by a relapse in spending by consumers and businesses, it is over the worst and its shares offer good value compared to rivals, so buy says the Independent.

FirstGroup shares trade on about nine times 2011 earnings, making the company the lowest-rated public transport group. That seems unwarranted, particularly since last month the company also promised to increase its dividend by 7% a year for the next three years. The dividend yield of almost 6% is certainly attractive and makes the shares worth tucking away. Buy says the Times.

US close

Wall Street succumbed to a late sell-off Tuesday, dragging the Dow Jones back close to 10,000 despite some encouraging economic data.

The blue chip index trading above 10,200 after lunch as investors welcomed a 2.7% increase in US construction spending during April, the largest increase for nearly six years. Even a drop in the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index to 59.7% in May from 60.4 the previous month was better than expected.

Eventually, the sellers returned.
Chevron and Exxon Mobil took a hiding as oil prices fell, while sentiment was soured by BP’s 15% slump. It still hasn’t figured out how to stop the leak in the Gulf of Mexico.

Oil services and exploration companies fell in sympathy.
Anadarko Petroleum, Halliburton and Diamond Offshore Drilling were among the worst performers.

Across the markets, the Dow Jones ended the session down 112 points at 10,024, the Nasdaq Composite fell 34 points, or 1.5%, to 2,222, while the broad-based S&P 500 was off 18 at 1,070.




Sector Risers

NameValue% Change
Life Insurance3,530.50+3.2%
Tobacco25,080.18+3.1%
Fixed Line Telecommunications1,873.05+1.9%
Electricity6,119.01+1.8%
Technology Hardware & Equipment416.43+1.5%

Sector Fallers

NameValue% Change
Oil & Gas Producers7,122.30-4.5%
Alternative Energy5,712.17-3.7%
Industrial Metals & Mining5,197.06-2.2%
Forestry & Paper4,415.18-2.1%
Automobiles & Parts2,852.44-1.8%

Tuesday, June 1, 2010

US Closing Market Report

Wall Street succumbed to a late sell-off Tuesday, dragging the Dow Jones back close to 10,000 despite some encouraging economic data.

The blue chip index trading above 10,200 after lunch as investors welcomed a 2.7% increase in US construction spending during April, the largest increase for nearly six years.

Even a drop in the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index to 59.7% in May from 60.4 the previous month was better than expected.

Stocks overcame early pressure caused by worse than anticipated data on Chinese manufacturing. China’s Purchasing Managers’ index fell to 53.9 in May from a reading of 55.7 in April.

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank warned that lenders in the eurozone could face up to €195bn in a second wave of potential loan losses over the next 18 months.

Eventually, the sellers returned.
Chevron and Exxon Mobil took a hiding as oil prices fell, while sentiment was soured by BP’s 15% slump. It still hasn’t figured out how to stop the leak in the Gulf of Mexico.

Across the markets, the Dow Jones ended the session down 112 points at 10,024, the Nasdaq Composite fell 34 points, or 1.5%, to 2,222, while the broad-based S&P 500 was off 18 at 1,070.

On the corporate front, the future of
Prudential’s bid for AIG’s Asian business looks in disarray after the US insurer refused to renegotiate the $35.5bn offer down to nearer $30bn.

AIG is already considering other options for AIA, including floating it or retaining it as part of the group.

Hewlett-Packard announced it plans to cut 9,000 jobs and take a $1bn financial charge, while Apple rose after it said Monday that iPad sales have topped 2 million since its launch in the United States on 3 April.

Shares in
BP crashed as investors reacted badly to the weekend's news that the 'top kill' attempt to block the Gulf of Mexico oil leak had failed. The oil giant's market value has now dropped by one-third or some Ł40bn since the crisis began on 20 April with the explosion on the Deepwater Horizon rig that killed eleven people.

Oil services and exploration companies fell in sympathy.
Anadarko Petroleum, Halliburton and Diamond Offshore Drilling were the three worst performers in the S&P.

Covidien is acquiring medical device manufacturer ev3 for $2.6bn. Bid rumours boosted the share price ofRadioshack.

Elsewhere, the Bank of Canada upped its benchmark interest rate by a quarter-point to 0.5%, the first rate hike in nearly three years. The bank moved its overnight lending rate 25 basis points higher, to re-establish the “normal functioning of the overnight market,” it said in a statement.


S&P 500 - Risers
Radioshack Corp. (RSH) $21.01 +2.79%
Hershey Foods Corp. (HSY) $48.00 +2.56%
Newmont Min Corp. (NEM) $54.64 +1.52%
Limited Brands Inc. (LTD) $25.23 +1.49%
Apple Inc. (AAPL) $260.31 +1.34%

S&P 500 - Fallers
Anadarko Petroleum (APC) $42.10 -19.55%
Tenet Hlthcre Corp. (THC) $4.72 -17.48%
FMC Technologies Inc. (FTI) $49.33 -15.17%
Halliburton Co (HAL) $21.15 -14.82%
Cameron International Corp. (CAM) $31.89 -11.91%

Dow Jones I.A - Risers
Kraft Foods Inc. (KFT) $28.90 +1.05%
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) $58.76 +0.79%
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) $50.92 +0.71%
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) $25.89 +0.35%
AT&T Inc. (T) $24.33 +0.12%

Dow Jones I.A - Fallers
Alcoa Inc. (AA) $11.19 -3.87%
JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) $38.54 -2.63%
Du Pont E I De Nemours and Co. (DD) $35.24 -2.57%
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) $59.27 -2.45%
General Electric Co. (GE) $15.98 -2.26%

Nasdaq 100 - Risers
Apple Inc. (AAPL) $260.31 +1.34%
Ross Stores Inc. (ROST) $53.04 +1.23%
Express Scripts Inc. (ESRX) $101.66 +1.05%
Intuitive Surgical Inc. (ISRG) $325.36 +0.80%
Vodafone Group Plc ADR (VOD) $20.24 +0.70%

Nasdaq 100 - Fallers
Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) $32.14 -4.29%
Sears Holdings Corp. (SHLD) $84.65 -4.13%
Sandisk Corp. (SNDK) $44.92 -3.65%
Seagate Technology (STX) $14.91 -2.91%
Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT) $12.58 -2.63%