Saturday, December 26, 2009

Technical Forecasts for CRBC, LJPC, and BBI

Charts of La Jolla Pharmaceutical Company,

Blockbuster, and Citizens Republic Bancorp are probed and prodded.

With stocks basically on pace to end the day flat as we approach the holiday weekend, there's not a lot going on in terms of trade setups. We did find a handful of charts worth exploring though,. Here's a closer technical inspection of La Jolla Pharmaceutical Company (NASDAQ:LJPC), Blockbuster Inc. (NYSE:BBI), and Citizens Republic Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ:CRBC).

I'm feeling a little better and better every day about my
December 8th Blockbuster Inc. (NYSE:BBI) call. At the time, I went bullish on the movie-rental outfit after it hurdled a technical barrier. As of today, it's finding support there.

At the time, BBI had just made its way back above $0.66, or the upper of two key support levels that extend back several months. Blockbuster Inc. shares even continued to as high as $0.78... and then the weight of the gains started to pull it back. It was at this time the chart was mostly vulnerable to returning to prior lows, if not lower. Good news though - BBI found support (
again) at $0.66 last week and this week, and seems to be pushing off of it again.

I can't stress the importance of support levels that continually come back into the picture. I count no less than five instances where the $0.66 area has been a support level for Blockbuster Inc., with the most recent one coming last week. Each time it happens, it solidified that support even further, making BBI even more likely to push up and off that line.


I guess none of us should really be surprised that La Jolla Pharmaceutical Company (NASDAQ:LJPC) ran into trouble and pulled back after it reached $0.32 a few weeks ago. I mean, it was the sixth time this year the stock had found a ceiling around that mark.... seriously.

I had to zoom out on the chart of that La Jolla Pharmaceutical shares to really show you this, so I apologize for the
scrunchi-ness (I know it's not a word, but you get what I mean). It's worth it though. Just take a look at that horizontal blue line, and you'll see what I mean - LJPC has a major problem with that hump, despite getting above it temporarily in April.

It gets worse though. Not only did LJPC pull back after a fake-out rally earlier in the month, today it's moved back under its last line of hope... support at the 61.8% Fib retracement line ($0.16). Between that breakdown and the chart's troubled history, I have to assume the La Jolla Pharmaceutical chart is going to move a lot lower before moving higher again.


Had it just been Citizens Republic Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ:CRBC) taking this shape, I may have dismissed it. But, I also noticed The South Financial Group, Inc. (TSFG) was taking the same form, as I noted n this morning's comments. To see not one but two banks forming the same chart - and possibly more I haven't seen yet - there's likely to be a much bigger trend in place that'll boost this group as a whole.

In any case, Citizens Republic Bancorp shares have ended up breaking out of the wedge I discussed back on November 5th. Of course, I was conditionally bearish on CRBC at the time, expecting the lower side of the wedge to be the one to snap first. I'm pleased I was wrong then (though I didn't commit for this very reason), as there's probably a lot more money to be made with Citizens Republic Bancorp on the way up than on the way down.

As for a target, you got me. There's so much room for CRBC to recover, the rally could stop anywhere. I simply suggest using a moderately-loose trailing stop with Citizens Republic Bancorp, Inc. that will get you out at the first sign of significant trouble.... though I'd also buy in the first upticks after any future dips.








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